Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Consensus is calling for a dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve with investors banking on a risk-on push. Saxo, however, sees no change and an IOER cut resulting in a small risk-off move and a correction inside the present bull market.
We continue to think the market is in a sideways formation after the strong run-up in Q1. We see the next risk infliction point coming in July/August where enough time will have passed for the market to realise that improvement in economic activity is not forthcoming, particularly not from a policy response of lower funding costs. That timeline also, and notably, moves us past the conclusion of the China-US trade deal.
Our risk outlook is neutral with a small overweight in long-term US fixed income relative to cash.
For more information about the FOMC decision, click here.
Click here for an excellent update from briefing.com (chart and introductory analysis below).
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
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