Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: Hang Seng on the move
Saxo
Trump’s attempted Ukraine/Russia peace talks dominated headlines pushing markets to focus on EU defence names early in the week. Saxo clients were active in BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and VanEck Defence UCITS ETF. Chinese tech is another sector on the move with the Hang Seng +17% YTD! Alibaba earnings and recent recognition of Chinese AI capabilities have supported the move. Fed minutes had muted reaction, RBNZ cut by 50 bps, UK saw a hot inflation print, and the ECBs Isabel Schnabel said the ECB could almost be done with interest rate cuts. More below on this week’s key stories.
European Defence Boost
European Defence names got yet another boost this week on expectation Europe will need to bolster spending. In the last month, Rheinmetall is +26%, Leonardo is +22%, and SAAB is +29%.
Defence stocks in focus
Alibaba AI fuelled growth
Alibaba reported on Thursday after HK close with strong earnings and a declaration to put AI at the heart of its business strategy. The ADR jumped 8% on Thursday while the HK listing soared 14.5% on Friday.
Alibaba earnings: A tech giant's comeback or just an AI-driven hype?
Palantir profit taking
Saxo client base trading activity was boosted in software company Palantir as the company’s share price fell as much as 23% from its Wednesday record high. Sentiment was dented by prospects of Pentagon budget cuts and insider selling from CEO Alex Karp.
Palantir Stock Tanks
New high, again
Gold is headed for an eight consecutive weekly advance on robust haven demand. FOMO and ETF inflows pushed spot gold to a fresh record near USD 2,955 on Thursday.
Commodities Weekly
Germans head to the polls on Sunday, the main danger for progress will be if the snap election results in another fragmented parliament. Inflation metrics are on stage this coming week with Euro-area CPI on Monday, Tokyo CPI on Thursday, and US PCE on Friday. We’ll also see policy decisions from South Korea and Thailand central banks. Earnings season ticks on with Nvidia the main event on Wednesday after US market close.
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