Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
One last point, BoJ / Japan set the bell curve of where debt lvls & central bank BS use is going… they have finished the race…. & KVP can see the USDJPY well south of 100, easily in 3-9months. Just take a step back, we have been around these 107-108 lvls, even with the epic bear squeeze moves in US equites & the dollar still being so strongly bid (imagine when DXY finally breaks?)…. There is likely big trade with stops around 110 & profit targets at a touch higher than 105, then 103, then 100 & save that last clip for braging rights – Dragon’s rule on this, slide your stop loss towards each successive lvl. Also FX vol is lower than morale in a Covid-19 lockdown.
We also have the FOMC this wed (early Thu Asia) where we are likely to see some questions in regards to negative rates, as well as the wall street over Main Street.
Last & most likely least, ECB on Thu - unless of course, they try to come to the rescue of the euro-zone again, given the subpar performance of all the political bobble-heads last wk.
Generally speaking from KVP’s side, the actual central bank meeting are less relevant now than Pre-Covid19… i.e. we know they are all committed to doing whatever it takes & the race to the bottom in the QE infinity game is here to stay for much longer than most people can envisage. What we can look for is hints & planting of the seeds of next potential steps... yield curve inversion, buying equities, bailing out more airlines (through the Treasury), negative rates, etc.
-
Start with gratitude & integrity. Make your luck out there. Positioning > Idea. Process > Outcome.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)