Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Greenback blasts yet higher ahead of FOMC
Clare MacCarthy
Senior Editor, Saxo Bank Group
There's scarcely anybody in the market who expects an actual monetary policy move from today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but it's nonetheless the event of the day as participants will parse the chairman's words for clues on the chances of a fourth rate hike this year, says John Hardy, Saxo’s head of forex strategy.
Beyond that, for hikes in 2019, scepticism rules.
For today at least, forex market movements indicate the strength of the market's conviction that this year will see at least three interest rate increases. The greenback is ploughing still higher into stronger ground ahead of the meeting: EURUSD has touched below 1.200 and USDJPY is near 110.00.
US equities, meanwhile, remain compressed into tight ranges, but will soon be pressed, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s head of equity strategy . We've already seen one breakout as Apple closed 2.3% higher on the back of an unexpectedly strong interim result that saw both revenue and iPhone sales exceed forecasts. "I was quite surprised by this – the slowdown in iPhone sales that was predicted didn't happen," Garnry notes.
In crude oil, Monday's spike higher that resulted from Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu's "revelation" about nefarious Iranian nuclear activity proved only temporary as the market recognised this for what it was: old news, reports Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy . But that said, President Trump's decision on or before May 12 about whether to scrap or try to amend the Iran nuclear deal remains a "binary event".
For now, though, the oil focus returns to fundamentals, including the upcoming EIA report at 14:30 GMT today.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
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