Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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US president Donald Trump’s May 12 decision on whether to retain, amend or ditch the multilateral deal that allows Iran trade its oil internationally, will be the dominant force in commodity markets during the week ahead.
“Crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium continues to build, with traders gearing up for a worst-case scenario ahead of Trump’s call on Iran. Stepping away from the 2015 nuclear deal risks raising Middle East tensions (US, Saudi Arabia and Israel vs Iran, Russia (& China)) while curbing production from Opec’s third-biggest producer,” says Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy.
Traders are also on watch for any developments in the US-China trade relationship after a Beijing visit last week by treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin produced nothing of substance. “On top of this we have a rising dollar, China trade data on Tuesday, and a $73bn US bond auction (Tues-Thur),” Hansen notes.
Equities, meanwhile, are in a cheerful mood with Asian and European bourses taking their cue from Friday’s strong close on Wall Street. That positive finish, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s head of equity strategy, was inspired by an in-line nonfarm payrolls report which markets interpreted as “a Goldilocks scenario of robust growth with little wage inflation.” That said, Garnry says that there remain many reasons to be cautions and defensive on equities, not least the stronger dollar “which is toxic for emerging markets”.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
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