Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access all our platforms from a single account.
Technical Update - Metals ripe for short-term correction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Metals are ripe for a short-term correction before the medium-term uptrends are likely to resume.
Gold could dip below 1,800, Silver below 22 and Copper could test 400 before buyers are likely to regain control
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
Copper seems ripe for a short-term correction. A correction that could take Copper down to test 400 i.e., 0.382 of the January move.
However, Copper is in an uptrend both short- and medium-term and buyers are likely to come back in making the possible correction a minor and short one.
Daily RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating Copper to move higher.
Copper has retraced more than 50% of the Q2-Q3 2022 downtrend (see weekly chart) and is now back above 55 weekly SMA. Bollinger bands are expanding and RSI is currently above 60 threshold. If RSI closes the week above 60 medium-term sentiment is positive and will indicate higher Copper prices in coming weeks and months.
0.618 retracement at around 431 could be reached early in Q1 but there is room up to resistance around 447-457 .
For Copper to reverse this bullish scenario a close below 370 is needed.
Uptrend in Gold is short-term a bit stretched and the precious metal is ripe for a correction. Gold has broken the resistance at around 1,875 and could spike up above the 0.618 retracement of the Q2-Q3 2022 downtrend and above 1,900 before selling initiates a correction. A correction that could take gold down to 1,850-1,825. However, short-term intensified selling pressure could dip Gold down to 0.382 retracement of the past couple of months uptrend at around 1,783.
Daily RSI is still showing divergence and needs to close above the horizontal line to cancel that. If rejected the correction could be larger possibly down to test 1,800.
Medium-term trend is up however, supported by Bollinger bands expansion and RSI above 60. All Moving Averages are rising further underlining the medium-term bullish sentiment. A bullish sentiment that could take Gold to 1,970-2,000 going in to Q2.
Silver has step danced sideways out of the rising channel it was forming in November and December. A 0.382 correction down to 22 and a change is in the cards. RSI divergence supports this scenario.
However, if Silver breaks above 24.55 the uptrend is set to be extended.
Silver has almost reached its potential inverted S-H-S target and the above mentioned correction could test the Neckline from the upper side. However, there is room for higher silver levels with no strong resistance until 25,85-26. RSI is above 60 and no divergence supporting the bullish scenario.
However, if Silver breaks above 24.55 the uptrend is set to be extended.
Silver has almost reached its potential inverted S-H-S target and the above mentioned correction could test the Neckline from the upper side. However, there is room for higher silver levels with no strong resistance until 25,85-26. RSI is above 60 and no divergence supporting the bullish scenario.
Gold/Silver ratio is bouncing off strong support at around 74.57 and could move to resistance at around 82.20. A close above 82.20 and above 55 and 200 daily SMA’s is needed for further upside.
If Gold/Silver can break to close below 74 a sell-off down to 65-62 is likely.
RSI divergence explained: When an instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...