Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
7 FX pairs with interest pattern development. Medium to longer term view. All weekly charts.
AUDUSD: Falling Wedge breakout testing 0.618 Fibo level . If breaking above price could extend to 0.800
EURAUD: (Descending) Triangle like pattern which seems to be the right complex Shoulder area in what looks like a Complex Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern. Break out has reached 0.50 Fibo Extension. Not unlikely to test 0.618 Extension and strong support at around 1.44.
EURGBP: Trading in a falling channel. 0.8200-0.8250 seems to be strong support area. . Bullish break out of falling trend could push EURGBP to 200 weekly SMA and top of start of channel around 0.87
GBPUSD: Double Top pattern unfolded and target reached. However, bear trend not unlikely to continue towards 1.2750-1.2675 - after a likely correction where GBPUSD could test upper falling trend line in the channel. 200 Weekly SMA offers some support
USDCHF: Forming an Ascending Triangle like pattern. Wait for break out direction. Strong resistance at 0.9550. Bullish break out likely target is 1.00. Resistance at 0.99. Bear break out, likely price target lows of the triangle i.e. around 0.8740.