Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Friday 9th February saw the S&P 500 closing above the 5,000 (5,023) level for the first time in its history with gains powered by solid earnings and a continued appetite for technology stocks. Treasuries ended the week lower as rate cut bets were pushed back as the US economy continues to show strength and Crude oil prices picked up due to several contributing factors. A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S shares slid 15% after the company flagged “high uncertainty” in its 2024 earnings outlook and suspended share buybacks amid Red Sea disruption. Dutch digital payments giant Adyen looks set to closed the gap from their disaster August 2023 earnings and closed up 25% on the week.
Lunar New Year means trading in Asia may be subdued by shortened trading sessions. Earnings highlights are AirBnB (due Tuesday), Cisco and Equinix (due Wednesday), Deere & Co. (due Thursday). Key economic data to watch for is the US CPI, Tuesday. Eurozone GDP, industrial production, Wednesday. Japan, UK GDP as well as US initial jobless claims, retail sales, Thursday.