Our websites use cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising, and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy and our privacy policy.
Summary: Brexit drama and US data are today's macro focus.
Over the past few days, the British MPs have voted against:
• PM May’s deal • Customs union • EEA • Second referendum • No deal • Malthouse compromise
Yesterday, MPs voted in favor of delaying Brexit until June 30. Considering European Council president Donald Tusk’s recent comments, it is highly probable that the EU-27 will allow this delay, making a new vote on May’s deal possible. Fortunately, the ongoing Brexit drama is not having much market impact at this time, but the macroeconomic effect on business investment is likely to be disastrous.
For once today, we won’t focus on Brexit but rather on the latest US data. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in February, mostly due to positive momentum in the utilities category while auto manufacturing remains soft. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is due to increase again – to 95.6, according to consensus – as the positive trend from the stock market over the past weeks has led to further consumer optimism.
Finally, we expect another very decent number from the US labour market. The JOLTS survey lags the NFP report count by a month, but it is a closely watched indicator of inflationary pressures. Consensus is at 7,250 (slightly lower than the previous print) which should confirm as increase in wage pressure.
The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers: Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification) Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.