Saxo survey reveals investor sentiment aligns with general market uncertainty
The beginning of 2024 has been characterised by changing market expectations. Initially, the sentiment overall was largely pessimistic, as market players anticipated rate cuts. Since then, it has shifted unexpectedly towards becoming more optimistic, with many stock markets at or near all-time highs.
"Investors, including Saxo clients, came positively into 2024 after a strong 2023 in which a recession was avoided and great returns were delivered in equities. This position has been rewarded so far in 2024 despite unusual volatility in expectations around central bank policy rates and inflation," Garnry added.
U.S. expected to outperform, while Europe may lag behind
The panel of clients had a divided sentiment towards the major U.S. S&P 500 index, with just over half of the respondents expecting an increase, while nearly thirty percent anticipate a decrease.Central bank policies to play crucial role
Investors cite central bank policies as a key factor that will influence the financial markets this quarter. The survey highlighted that geopolitical tensions, the upcoming U.S. election, and ongoing recession concerns are also significant factors that could impact investment strategies.
"With interest rate cuts continue to be postponed, geopolitical tensions still high, and the US election gets closer, there is a lot of room for increased volatility in financial markets that merits that clients review whether their portfolios are set up for a turbulent quarter and beyond, " says Garnry.
Explore the full results of the sentiment survey below:
How do you think the American S&P 500 index will perform in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Big decrease | 2.2% |
| Decrease | 24.5% |
| No movement | 15.2% |
| Increase | 50.5% |
| Big increase | 1.1% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
What do you think will have the most impact on the performance of the S&P 500 index in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Macroeconomic indicators | 38.0% |
| Corporate earnings | 22.8% |
| Political climate | 10.9% |
| Geopolitics | 15.8% |
| Other (please specify) | 11.4% |
| None of the above | 1.1% |
Which global sector do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Energy | 17.4% |
| Materials | 10.3% |
| Industrials | 2.2% |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.1% |
| Consumer staples | 2.7% |
| Health care | 6.0% |
| Financials | 9.2% |
| Information technology | 33.7% |
| Communication services | 1.1% |
| Utilities | 1.1% |
| Real estate | 3.3% |
| Other (please specify): | 5.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
Which region do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 48.9% |
| Europe | 9.2% |
| Asia-Pacific | 22.3% |
| Emerging markets | 14.1% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| None of the above/I don’t know | 3.3% |
Which region do you think will perform the worst in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 12.0% |
| Europe | 40.8% |
| Asia-Pacific | 17.9% |
| Emerging markets | 18.5% |
| Other (please specify): | 0.5% |
| I don’t know | 10.3% |
Below we list some macro-economic events that may affect financial markets in the coming quarter. Which ones (if any) do you think will affect your investment strategy in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| US election | 30.4% |
| Central bank policy | 58.7% |
| Recession scares | 23.4% |
| Geopolitical tensions | 44.6% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| I don’t know | 2.7% |
About the survey:
The purpose of the Client Sentiment Survey was to gain insights into the expectations of Saxo’s clients for the upcoming quarter.
Saxo Bank Group (Saxo) is a leading multi-asset trading and investment specialist, offering a complete set of trading and investment technologies, tools and strategies.
For almost 25 years, Saxo’s mission has been to enable individuals and institutions by facilitating their access to professional trading and investing through technology and expertise.
Saxo enables its private clients to trade multiple asset classes across global financial markets from one single margin account and across multiple devices. Additionally, Saxo provides institutional clients such as banks and brokers with multi-asset execution, prime brokerage services and trading technology.
Saxo’s award winning trading platforms are available in more than 20 languages and form the technology backbone of more than 100 financial institutions worldwide.
Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Copenhagen, Saxo employs more than 1500 people in financial centres around the world including London, Singapore, Paris, Zurich, Dubai and Tokyo.