Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Saxo Group
Mid-cap stocks, positioned between small-cap and large-cap stocks, represent an essential part of the stock market that often flies under the radar for many investors. Over long-term periods, the performance of mid-caps tends to sit between that of small-cap and large-cap stocks.
Specifically, between October 2014 to October 2024, the S&P MidCap 400 Index, a major benchmark for mid-cap stocks, delivered an annualised return of 10.15%. Within the same timeframe, the S&P 500 (representing large-cap stocks) delivered an annualised return of 13.42% and the S&P SmallCap 600 (representing small-cap stocks) 9.47%. This long-term performance highlights some growth opportunities within mid-caps and their ability to balance growth and stability.
Mid-cap stocks represent companies with a market capitalisation ranging from $2 billion to $10 billion, occupying a middle ground between small-cap and large-cap stocks. These companies often exhibit more stability than small-caps while still maintaining growth potential, making them an appealing option for investors who want a balance between risk and reward.
Mid-cap stocks typically belong to businesses that have passed the volatile start-up phase but still have room for growth. Many of these companies operate in established industries and may expand into new markets, offering significant growth opportunities without the extreme volatility seen in smaller companies. They may, in comparison to large-cap stocks, have a more limited geography or not operate on the international market.
Compared to small-cap stocks, mid-caps generally have more financial resources and established business models. They are also more likely to attract institutional investors due to their stability. However, they are not as recognised or heavily covered by analysts as large-caps, which can lead to undervalued opportunities for those willing to perform thorough research, although size is no guarantee of valuation.
Mid-cap and large-cap stocks serve different purposes, each offering its own benefits and risks.
Let's break those differences down:
Mid-cap stocks are generally seen as having more growth potential compared to large-cap stocks. Large-cap companies, such as Apple or Microsoft, are already well-established, and while they offer stability, their growth is usually slower.
Mid-cap companies, on the other hand, are often in a phase of expansion, whether through entering new markets, developing new products, or acquiring smaller firms.
With the potential for growth usually comes greater risk. Mid-cap stocks are typically more volatile than large-cap stocks. Due to their size, established markets, and broader financial resources, large-cap companies can face economic downturns more effectively.
Mid-cap companies, although more stable than small-caps, still face challenges in addressing market turbulence.
Large-cap stocks enjoy widespread analyst coverage and media attention, so investors have easy access to research, financial reports, and market analysis.
Mid-cap stocks, on the other hand, receive less coverage, which can result in market inefficiencies and opportunities for investors willing to do their own research. However, this limited visibility can also mean higher uncertainty and less predictability.
Large-cap stocks are typically known for offering higher dividend yields, as these companies are more likely to return profits to shareholders in the form of dividends.
Mid-cap stocks, still in their growth phase, often reinvest profits back into the business rather than paying out dividends, making them more suitable for investors focussing on capital appreciation rather than income.
Mid-cap stocks appeal to investors looking for a blend of growth and stability. In contrast, large-cap stocks tend to attract more conservative investors who seek security, stability, and dividend income. Large-cap stocks are also favoured by institutional investors and form the backbone of many portfolios due to their strong performance during economic uncertainty.
Mid-cap stocks provide a balance between the rapid growth potential seen in small-cap companies and the stability associated with large-cap firms.
Here are five reasons why you might consider adding mid-cap stocks to your portfolio:
Mid-cap companies are typically in the growth phase of their lifecycle, expanding market share, increasing revenues, or even positioning themselves for acquisition by larger firms. However, they also tend to be more stable than smaller companies, as they have survived the most volatile early stages of development.
This combination of growth potential and relative financial stability makes mid-caps appealing to investors seeking risk-adjusted returns and capital appreciation.
Historically, mid-cap stocks have shown the ability to outperform both small- and large-cap stocks over the long term. The S&P MidCap 400 Index has consistently delivered higher returns than the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over several market cycles.
Mid-cap companies can often capitalise on market opportunities more effectively than their larger counterparts, and investors can benefit from this agility.
While large-cap stocks are heavily traded by institutional investors and often fully valued, mid-cap stocks tend to fly under the radar. With fewer analysts and institutional buyers focussing on mid-caps, the market may present more opportunities for individual investors to uncover undervalued stocks with strong growth potential.
Mid-cap companies are frequently acquisition targets for larger firms looking to expand their market presence, product lines, or technologies. When a mid-cap company is acquired, the share price often experiences a significant jump, providing a potential windfall for investors who own the stock before the deal is announced.
Since mid-caps behave differently than large- and small-cap stocks during various economic cycles, they can improve overall portfolio diversification and reduce volatility. Additionally, their relatively lower correlation with large-cap stocks can help investors manage risk while exploring growth opportunities.
For investors seeking broad exposure to mid-cap companies, several major indexes track the performance of this market segment. These indexes can provide diversification across sectors and geographies, offering a balanced approach to mid-cap investing.
The S&P MidCap 400 tracks 400 mid-sized companies in the US with market caps between $2 billion and $8 billion. It is one of the most widely followed mid-cap benchmarks used by numerous exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The Russell Midcap Index represents the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000, focussing on mid-caps in the US market. With a median market cap of around $8 billion, it provides a comprehensive look at mid-sized companies and is often used by mutual funds and ETFs.
This index tracks the performance of mid-sized companies across developed European markets. It includes companies from various sectors, offering investors exposure to European mid-caps.
The MSCI Europe Mid Cap Index covers mid-sized companies from 15 European developed markets, providing broad exposure to this region. The index includes companies from sectors like industrials, healthcare, and financials.
For investors looking at the Japanese market, the Nikkei 500 Mid Cap Index tracks the performance of mid-sized companies in Japan. It focusses on companies that are often industry leaders in sectors like technology and manufacturing.
ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) are investment funds that follow specific stock, bond, commodity or currency baskets, and are traded on stock exchanges just like ordinary stocks. Mid-cap stock ETFs are a great way to diversify your portfolio because each ETF allows you to invest in a wide range of mid-sized companies without the need to pick individual stocks.
These ETFs focus on companies that are bigger and more established than small-cap stocks but still have plenty of room to grow, unlike large-cap companies that may already be industry giants. This sweet spot can offer a nice mix of growth potential and stability.
By including mid-cap ETFs in a portfolio, investors can spread their exposure across a broader range of company sizes, reducing reliance on any single market segment and potentially smoothing out overall portfolio performance during market fluctuations.
Mid-cap stocks might offer a mix of growth potential and stability, but they also come with risks that investors must consider. Here are the main risks associated with mid-cap investing:
Mid-cap stocks generally experience more price volatility than large-cap stocks. While not as volatile as small-cap stocks, mid-caps are more susceptible to market fluctuations due to their size and relative lack of financial resources. As a result, they may experience sharp price swings during periods of economic uncertainty or market corrections.
Compared to large-cap companies, mid-cap firms often have less access to capital, making it harder for them to finance expansion, innovation, or face economic downturns. This limitation can sabotage their ability to grow consistently or overcome challenges that require significant financial investment.
Mid-cap stocks tend to receive less attention from institutional investors and analysts than large-cap stocks. This reduced coverage can lead to a lack of information, making it harder for individual investors to make informed decisions. Limited visibility can also lead to mispricing in the market, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors.
Mid-cap companies are often more concentrated in specific sectors or markets, which can expose them to sector-specific risks. Unlike large-cap companies that are more diversified, mid-cap firms may struggle if their industry faces headwinds or if they are unable to adapt to changing market conditions.
While mid-cap companies are often targets for mergers and acquisitions, these deals can also pose risks. Failed acquisitions or restructuring efforts can negatively affect a company's stock price, resulting in losses for investors. Additionally, regulatory issues or integration challenges can also complicate the post-merger performance of mid-cap companies.
Mid-cap stocks strike a balance between the aggressive growth potential of small-caps and the stability of large-caps, making them a versatile investing option. They offer growth opportunities as many of these companies are still expanding, yet they are more stable than smaller companies, having already proven their business models and market positions.
While they come with risks such as volatility, limited financial resources, and less analyst coverage, they can also provide significant returns.
Balancing mid-cap investments alongside small and large-cap stocks can help you create a diversified portfolio that captures different growth stages, reduces risk, and takes advantage of market changes.