Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Whether markets are reaching new highs or experiencing sharp declines, investors often face a tough decision—should you jump in now, wait for conditions to improve, or hold off for a potential pullback? The fear of "buying at the wrong time" is real, but sitting on the sidelines can mean missing out on long-term growth. Instead of trying to time the market, investors can consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) as a measured, consistent approach.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy where you divide your total investment amount into smaller, regular contributions over time. Rather than investing a lump sum all at once, you invest the same fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of market fluctuations.
By consistently investing, DCA smooths out the impact of market volatility. This approach allows you to buy whole shares, purchasing more when prices are low and fewer when prices are high, resulting in a balanced average cost.
To understand how DCA works, consider this simple example:
Imagine you have USD 12,000 to invest in a stock or an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Instead of investing the entire amount immediately, you decide to invest USD 1,000 each month for 12 months.
Since you can only buy whole shares, any leftover cash is carried over to the next month. Here’s how it might play out:
Month | Share Price (USD) | Amount Invested (USD) | Shares Purchased | Cash Left Over (USD) |
1 | 100 | 1,000 | 10 | 0 |
2 | 95 | 1,000 | 10 | 50 |
3 | 90 | 1,050 | 11 | 40 |
4 | 105 | 1,040 | 9 | 95 |
5 | 110 | 1,095 | 9 | 105 |
6 | 100 | 1,095 | 10 | 95 |
7 | 98 | 1,095 | 11 | 13 |
8 | 95 | 1,013 | 10 | 63 |
9 | 90 | 1,063 | 11 | 53 |
10 | 85 | 1,053 | 12 | 33 |
11 | 88 | 1,033 | 11 | 45 |
12 | 92 | 1,045 | 11 | 43 |
If you had invested the full USD 12,000 at the start of the year when the share price was USD 100, you would have purchased 120 shares. But by using DCA, you bought more shares during market dips, ending up with 125 shares at a lower average cost per share of USD 96.00.
DCA offers a systematic approach to investing across various market conditions. Here’s why it works well:
DCA works well under various market conditions, making it particularly valuable in the following scenarios:
DCA is versatile and can be effectively applied to both stocks and ETFs, fitting seamlessly into diverse investment portfolios.
Like any investment strategy, DCA has strengths and limitations:
A common debate among investors is whether to invest a lump sum all at once or to stagger investments using DCA. Research shows lump-sum investing often outperforms DCA in markets trending steadily higher. However, DCA excels at managing risk and investor emotions. If market volatility or timing concerns make you anxious, DCA allows you to steadily participate in market growth while minimising exposure to significant downturns.
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