Industrial metals prices weighed down by trade, demand fears Industrial metals prices weighed down by trade, demand fears Industrial metals prices weighed down by trade, demand fears

Weekly Commodity Update: Metals surge on China Covid easing speculation

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Commodities traded higher during a week where the focus altered between optimism over China reopening and an extended rate hike cycle in the US having a negative impact on global growth and demand. Overall China optimism won the day with strong gains being led by industrial metals, energy and cotton.


Commodities traded mostly higher during a week where the focus altered between optimism over China reopening and an extended rate hike cycle in the US having a negative impact on global growth and demand. In addition, the energy market continues to focus on the price-supportive impact of OPEC+ production cuts and upcoming EU sanctions against Russian crude sales. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index which tracks a basket of major commodity futures spread evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, traded higher by more than 4% near a three-week high.

Following Wednesday’s expected 75 basis point rate hike, the fourth in this cycle, Fed Chair Powell went on to deliver what turned out to be a temporary hammer-blow to sentiment across markets after saying that any talk of a pause is “very premature”. However, it is also clear that the FOMC will be economic data driven, and any signs of weakness could alter this view after the Fed in its statement raised the prospect of pausing to assess the” cumulative tightening” impact.

The time lag between rate hikes and the economic impact remains a worry that the bond market is trying to price through an increasingly inverted US yield curve. This week, the 2–10-year spread jumped to -61 basis points, the most inverted we have seen it since the 1980’s and it highlights the risk of a central bank policy mistake leading to weaker growth without successfully managing to get inflation under control. These developments helped support gold and silver, both bouncing strongly on short covering following an initial and failed attempt to drive them lower through key support.

4olh_wcu1

Gold recovering from another FOMC dump

Gold traded higher on the week after managing to recover from the stronger dollar and rising yields driven sell-off that followed Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The initial weakness saw gold challenge key support in the $1615 area for a third time with the subsequent bounce being supported by short covering and a softer dollar. Also supporting the price was the mentioned further inversion of the US yield curve signalling increased risks of an economic slowdown. Having returned to safer ground the market will be watching the incoming economic data, starting with US payrolls on Friday which despite being on the strong side did not arrest gold’s end of week rally.

At Saxo, we maintain a long-held view that the medium term inflation outlook will likely surprise to the upside with a 4% to 5% range over the next decade not being that outrageous. Driven by a new geopolitical situation where the world is splitting into two parts with everything evolving around deglobalization driven by the need for self-reliance. Together with the energy transition, we are facing a decade that will be commodity and capital intensive and where scarcity of raw materials and labor will keep inflation elevated for longer, and higher than the 3% level currently being priced in through the swaps market.

Such a scenario combined with the risk of an economic slowdown forcing a roll over in central bank rate hike expectations, sending yields and the dollar lower, may in our opinion create powerful tailwinds for gold and silver during 2023. Underlying support is already being provided by central banks who bought a record 400 tons in Q3, thereby more than offsetting a 227 tons reduction in total holdings across bullion-backed ETFs. With support firmly established at $1615, the first key upside challenge awaits in the $1675-80 area where we find a recent high, the 50-day moving and trendline from the March high.

4olh_wcu3
Source: Saxo Group

Crude oil bulls getting the upper hand

Crude oil remains on track for a third week of gains with Brent and WTI crude oil both approaching the top of their established ranges with the focus on the supply impact of OPEC+ production cuts and upcoming EU sanctions against Russian oil as well as a tight product market while the demand side is torn between the prospect of a pickup in Chinese demand once Covid restrictions are lifted and worries that global economic activity will continue to weaken in the coming months.

While crude oil has been mostly rangebound since July, the fuel product market has continued to tighten as supplies in Europe and the US have become increasingly scarce, thereby driving up refinery margins for gasoline and distillate products such as diesel, heating oil and jet fuel. The focus in terms of tightness remains the northern hemisphere product market where low stocks of diesel and heating oil continues to raise concerns. The market has been uprooted by the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, a major supplier of refined products to Europe. In addition, the high cost for gas has supported increased switching activity from gas to other fuels, especially diesel and heating oil.

T
his tight market situation is now being made worse by the OPEC+ ill-timed decision to cut production from this month. While the continued release of US (light sweet) crude from its strategic reserves will support the production of gasoline, the OPEC+ production cuts will primarily be provided by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE – all producers of the medium/heavy crude which yields the highest amount of distillate.

As long as the product market remains this tight, the risk of seeing lower crude oil prices -despite the current worry about recession - seems to be low so we maintain our forecast for a price range in Brent for this quarter between $85 and $100, with the tightening product market increasingly skewing the risk to the upside.

4olh_wcu2
Source: Saxo Group

Strong week for industrial metals on reopening hopes

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index was heading for its best week since July with gains being led by the three major metals of nickel, aluminum and copper on unverified talk that China could be moving closer to exit its strict Covid-zero policies as well as raised worries about tightening supply driven by increased activity from Chinese buyers. Copper in addition received a boost from a halt to operations at MMG’s giant Las Bambas mine in Peru, one of the world’s largest. Since October 31, operations have been challenged by blockades from locals.

As per the chart below, HG copper, rangebound since July, traded sharply higher through a couple of resistance levels but in order to confirm a proper recovery it would need to break above the August high at $3.78 per pound. Only then can we potential see fresh momentum buying from speculators who for months have preferred to trade the metal with a short bias.

4olh_wcu4
Source: Saxo Group

Cotton jumps on short covering and signs of a demand rebound.

Cotton, down by more than 50% since May on worries about the health of the global economy and with that demand for garments from consumers, has bounced 20% since last Friday. Despite renewed dollar strength weighing on other agriculture commodities, cotton has bounced on signs China’s yarn production seems to be picking up. A story supported by weekly US export sales to China showing a 98% jump from a year ago.

Rollercoaster week for wheat

Wheat traded in Chicago and Paris surged higher at the start of the week after Russia announced a suspension of the Ukraine grain-export deal, only to slump after an about-face from Russia allowed shipments to continue. Prices nevertheless maintained a bid on growing drought concerns in Argentina and the US Plains.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.