Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 10-year Treasury yields is trending slightly down on the very short term but key support at 2.71% still holds. It could still be range bound for a while between 2.71 and 3111. That is the range it needs to break out of. RSI is moving in a falling wedge like pattern and break out from here is to strongly indicate yield direction. Break out falling wedges are usually to the upside but can occur to the downside. (Drawing trendlines on RSI often gives a much clearer picture of the underlying price move)
If break out happens to the downside yields could drop to 2.31 with some support at 2.55. However, I do believe we will see yields bounce from here and test the short-term falling trendline. If broken key resistance is 3.11%.