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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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technical analysis

FXO Market Update - Apr 07

Forex Options
Mathias-Alrixon-400x400
Mathias Alrixon

OTC Derivatives Trading

Summary:  US rates higher over the last week after hawkish comments from FED. USD trades higher and EM currencies with MXN in particular trades weaker. USDMXN is up around 2% from Monday and vols trades bid after the move in spot.

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.

07_MAAL_1
FX volatility, source Saxo Bank. Vol column: At-the-money volatility for the given maturity. 1w column: Change of the at-the-money volatility for the given maturity over the last week.
07_MAAL_2
Source: Bloomberg, Blue: USDMXN spot

Hawkish comments from FED over the last days have pushed rates higher, US10y up from 2.35 on Monday to 2.65 high yesterday. USD trades bid and the dollar index has pushed up above recent highs.

EM currencies have taken a beating with USDMXN up from 19.75 on Monday to current levels around 20.15. First resistance comes in at 20.28-20.30 level. 1 month vol is up from 9.85 to 10.75 while 1w is up 3 vol from Monday and now trades around 11.50. Risk reversals are higher after the 1.5% move in spot, 1 month risk reversal up 0.3 to 2.0 for topside.

We think USDMXN calls offer good value to sell after the move higher in spot, vol and risk reversal.

Sell 1 week 20.3000 USDMXN call
Receive 650 pips

Alternative

Sell 1 month 20.7500 USDMXN call
Receive 1,000 pips

Spot ref.: 20.1500
07_MAAL_3
Source: Saxo Bank
  • The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
  • Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
  • Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.

FX Options Trading:

You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date

If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.

By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.

If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.

Learn more about FX Options:

Forex Options – An introduction

Forex Options – Exotic options

Forex Options - Webinars

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