FXO Market Update - Apr 07

Hawkish comments from FED over the last days have pushed rates higher, US10y up from 2.35 on Monday to 2.65 high yesterday. USD trades bid and the dollar index has pushed up above recent highs.

EM currencies have taken a beating with USDMXN up from 19.75 on Monday to current levels around 20.15. First resistance comes in at 20.28-20.30 level. 1 month vol is up from 9.85 to 10.75 while 1w is up 3 vol from Monday and now trades around 11.50. Risk reversals are higher after the 1.5% move in spot, 1 month risk reversal up 0.3 to 2.0 for topside.

We think USDMXN calls offer good value to sell after the move higher in spot, vol and risk reversal.

Sell 1 week 20.3000 USDMXN call
Receive 650 pips

Alternative

Sell 1 month 20.7500 USDMXN call
Receive 1,000 pips

• The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
• Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
• Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.

FX Options Trading:

You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date

If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.

By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.

If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.

Learn more about FX Options:

Forex Options – An introduction

Forex Options – Exotic options