Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators cut bullish dollar bets against ten IMM currency futures by the most in eight years during the week to March 10. Collapsing US interest rates and yields helped drive unwinding of leveraged and carry positions, especially against the euro and Japanese yen.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Speculators cut bullish dollar bets by the most in eight years during the week to March 10. A surge in the probability of another near-term Fed rate cut helped sparked the biggest drop in Libor since 2008. The resulting narrowing of interest rate spreads to other major currencies drove an unwinding of leveraged and carry positions. The JPY meanwhile attracted aggressive short-covering as USDJPY broke below key support. The gross long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index was cut by 90% to just $1.7 billion, a 21 months low.
The Mexican peso overtook the dollar as the most favored long. This despite falling by 7.4% during a week where many EM currencies saw heavy selling. Commodity dependent currencies remained under pressure, not least the Canadian dollar which turned back to a net short as crude oil got slammed.
The dramatic slump in the dollar long was led by euro and Japanese yen buying. The euro net-short was cut by 85% ($10.5 billion equivalent) to the least since October 2018. The Japanese yen turned net long for the first time since October following $6 billion worth of buying.
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Commodity Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy