COT: Dollar long cut by most in eight years

Speculators cut bullish dollar bets by the most in eight years during the week to March 10. A surge in the probability of another near-term Fed rate cut helped sparked the biggest drop in Libor since 2008. The resulting narrowing of interest rate spreads to other major currencies drove an unwinding of leveraged and carry positions. The JPY meanwhile attracted aggressive short-covering as USDJPY broke below key support. The gross long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index was cut by 90% to just $1.7 billion, a 21 months low. 

The Mexican peso overtook the dollar as the most favored long. This despite falling by 7.4% during a week where many EM currencies saw heavy selling. Commodity dependent currencies remained under pressure, not least the Canadian dollar which turned back to a net short as crude oil got slammed.

The dramatic slump in the dollar long was led by euro and Japanese yen buying. The euro net-short was cut by 85% ($10.5 billion equivalent) to the least since October 2018. The Japanese yen turned net long for the first time since October following $6 billion worth of buying.