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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCHF & GBPAUD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: GBPUSD below support at 1.2667 but its likely to be just a correction
EURGBP bounced from 0.85 breaking bullish out of falling trend channel
GBPCHF uptrend facing strong resistance but indicators suggesting higher levels
GBPAUD rejected just below 1.92 but could have another attempt
GBPUSD broke yesterday below support at 1.2667. The trend is still up, however, supported by positive sentiment on RSI and no divergence meaning GBPUS is likely to resume uptrend after correction.
However, the correction could take GBPUSD to the 0.618 retracement at 1.2514 which is also around the 55 daily Moving Average.
Medium-term trend is still bullish supported by RSI (weekly chart). The 200 weekly Moving Average seems to be a strong resistance however, but there should be room up to the 0.786 retracement at 1.3012 and resistance area around 1.3025.
A break above could take GBPUSD back to levels not seen since Q1/Q2 2022 just prior to the massive sell-off around 1.3745.
EURGBP broke below support at around 0.8550 only to bounce from 0.85. Broken above its falling channel pattern EURGBP seems set for test of resistance at around 0.8715. However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 threshold.
A setback resulting in RSI breaking below its short-term rising trend line is an indication of EURGBP resuming downtrend.
Medium-term EURGBP is in a downtrend and a close above 0.8725 is needed to demolish that picture. 55 and 200 weekly Moving Averages will provide resistance just below.
Strong support at 0.8425-0.8365.
GBPCHF has been building an uptrend short-term but could still be range bound medium-term. There seems to be strong overhead resistance around 1.1565 where GBPCHF could be rejected at after the current correction is over.
RSI indicates GBPCHF is likely to move higher after the correction that is currently testing the 0.382 retracement. However, a correction down to test the lower rising trend line could be seen.
Medium-term GBPCHF has broken bullish out of its Descending Triangle like pattern (weekly chart)
RSI rejected at 60 and needs to close above to reverse negative sentiment. If it does there is upside potential for GBPCHF to the 0.618 retracement at 1.1950
A close below upper falling trend line in the triangle is likely to resume the selling pressure. Strong support at around 1.10 is key.
GBPAUD has at first attempt failed to close above previous peak in May above 1.9183. A correction could be underway possibly taking GBPAUD down to the 0.618 retracement at 1.8782.
RSI is still bullish with no divergence indicating higher GBPAUD levels.
However, from the weekly chart there seems to be strong resistance around 1.9150. With RSI divergence maybe this was the exhaustive move. GBPAUD needs to close above 1.92 to extend uptrend. If it does there is medium- to longer term potential to 2.05-2.10.
Short-to medium-term GBPAUD could be looking at 1.98-2.00 which is approx. the 2.0 projection of the recent correction.
A close below 1.85 will reverse the uptrend.
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