Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCHF & GBPAUD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: GBPUSD below support at 1.2667 but its likely to be just a correction
EURGBP bounced from 0.85 breaking bullish out of falling trend channel
GBPCHF uptrend facing strong resistance but indicators suggesting higher levels
GBPAUD rejected just below 1.92 but could have another attempt
GBPUSD broke yesterday below support at 1.2667. The trend is still up, however, supported by positive sentiment on RSI and no divergence meaning GBPUS is likely to resume uptrend after correction.
However, the correction could take GBPUSD to the 0.618 retracement at 1.2514 which is also around the 55 daily Moving Average.
Medium-term trend is still bullish supported by RSI (weekly chart). The 200 weekly Moving Average seems to be a strong resistance however, but there should be room up to the 0.786 retracement at 1.3012 and resistance area around 1.3025.
A break above could take GBPUSD back to levels not seen since Q1/Q2 2022 just prior to the massive sell-off around 1.3745.
EURGBP broke below support at around 0.8550 only to bounce from 0.85. Broken above its falling channel pattern EURGBP seems set for test of resistance at around 0.8715. However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 threshold.
A setback resulting in RSI breaking below its short-term rising trend line is an indication of EURGBP resuming downtrend.
Medium-term EURGBP is in a downtrend and a close above 0.8725 is needed to demolish that picture. 55 and 200 weekly Moving Averages will provide resistance just below.
Strong support at 0.8425-0.8365.
GBPCHF has been building an uptrend short-term but could still be range bound medium-term. There seems to be strong overhead resistance around 1.1565 where GBPCHF could be rejected at after the current correction is over.
RSI indicates GBPCHF is likely to move higher after the correction that is currently testing the 0.382 retracement. However, a correction down to test the lower rising trend line could be seen.
Medium-term GBPCHF has broken bullish out of its Descending Triangle like pattern (weekly chart)
RSI rejected at 60 and needs to close above to reverse negative sentiment. If it does there is upside potential for GBPCHF to the 0.618 retracement at 1.1950
A close below upper falling trend line in the triangle is likely to resume the selling pressure. Strong support at around 1.10 is key.
GBPAUD has at first attempt failed to close above previous peak in May above 1.9183. A correction could be underway possibly taking GBPAUD down to the 0.618 retracement at 1.8782.
RSI is still bullish with no divergence indicating higher GBPAUD levels.
However, from the weekly chart there seems to be strong resistance around 1.9150. With RSI divergence maybe this was the exhaustive move. GBPAUD needs to close above 1.92 to extend uptrend. If it does there is medium- to longer term potential to 2.05-2.10.
Short-to medium-term GBPAUD could be looking at 1.98-2.00 which is approx. the 2.0 projection of the recent correction.
A close below 1.85 will reverse the uptrend.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)