Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 16 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Dax at all time highs, Nikkei Tests the 1989 highs


Good Morning

It remains interesting…

Worse than expected US retail sales caused yields and the USD to slip while it boosted sentiment across the board. Indexes closed higher with the Dow +0.9%, the S&P 500 0.6%,and the Nasdaq 0.3%. AI shares were under pressure across the board while Tesla and Coinbase were the winners of the day.

News that Open AI is developing a web search product in challenge to Google caused worries on AI shares while news that Elon Musk increased his holding in Tesla to more than 20% in the last year. Coinbase rose 13% on good earnings.

The GER40 is trading at an all time high the Japan 225 is getting very close to the 1989 highs. Having broken above the 17065, the GER40 now has room to 17250 – 17403 acc to Kim

FX is at interesting levels: while the USD Index is trading at 104.40, EURUSD is testing the 1.08, GBPUSD 1.26, USJPY 150 and USDCHF the 0.88. Silver had a stellar day again after the recent selloff gaining 2.5% yesterday to now test the 23. Oil was the main driver it seems. Gold rose to 2003. Bitcoin rose to 52k and ETH to 2850.

Oil rose back to 78 in the USD Line as geopolitical worries offset demand worries.

Ukrainian President Selinski is visiting Berlin today and the Munich security conference is kicking off.

On the Agenda today is mainly the USPPI at 14:30. Next week, the Nvidia earinigs on Wednesday will clearly be one of the absolute highlights, the economic agenda is fairly thin, the Chinese will be back from their new years celebrations though.

For today we will need to see markets can maintain the momentum built up in the recovery from the high CPI or if we run into profit taking into the week .

Friday
- Data US PPI

- Earnings: Eni

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CLH4 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

KCH4 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
PAH4 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

 

Expiring CFDs

COFFEENYMAR24 will expire 19 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

OILUSMAR24 will expire 16 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

PALLADIUMMAR24 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

COTTONMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

COCOANYMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.