Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 15 2025

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Reprieve ahead of the US CPI


Good morning,

The lower-than-expected PPI out of the US yesterday gave risk sentiment and bonds a boost, but traders remain on edge ahead of the CPI data today. The UK just released a lower-than-feared 2.5% (2.6% was expected).

The US Consumer Price Index will be released at 14:30 CET and is expected at 2.9% after 2.7% in December, with the Core CPI seen at 3.3%.

After the PPI data yesterday, the year-end implied Fed rate is 30 basis points below the current level, and that is the benchmark for later today. The 10-year yields are slightly off Monday's high at 4.77, and the USD Index is at 109.22. EUR/USD is near 1.03, GBP/USD at 1.2180, and USD/JPY at 157.20 after rumors of intervention and a possible hike by the Bank of Japan.

Gold and Silver are higher at 2680 and 29.95, respectively, and Bitcoin is nearing the 100k mark again at 97100.

There are many headlines ahead of the inauguration on Monday, which is also a US market holiday, Martin Luther King Day:

  • A Gaza ceasefire seems imminent.
  • VW is an interesting stock to watch today after the company reported very low sales numbers in China.
  • The SEC is suing Elon Musk for the way he took over Twitter.
  • After Donald Trump's threat towards Greenland, Reuters reports active discussions in China regarding Taiwan.

Trade safely and expect sharp moves into the inauguration of Donald Trump

 

Wednesday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK , Sweden, France and US CPI.
- Fed Barkin speaks, Feds Beige Book.
- Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, BNY, Goldman Sachs,
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Filly Fed
- Earnings: tsmc, MBank of America. US Bancorp,
-
Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.