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Morning Brew January 15 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Reprieve ahead of the US CPI
Good morning,
The lower-than-expected PPI out of the US yesterday gave risk sentiment and bonds a boost, but traders remain on edge ahead of the CPI data today. The UK just released a lower-than-feared 2.5% (2.6% was expected).
The US Consumer Price Index will be released at 14:30 CET and is expected at 2.9% after 2.7% in December, with the Core CPI seen at 3.3%.
After the PPI data yesterday, the year-end implied Fed rate is 30 basis points below the current level, and that is the benchmark for later today. The 10-year yields are slightly off Monday's high at 4.77, and the USD Index is at 109.22. EUR/USD is near 1.03, GBP/USD at 1.2180, and USD/JPY at 157.20 after rumors of intervention and a possible hike by the Bank of Japan.
Gold and Silver are higher at 2680 and 29.95, respectively, and Bitcoin is nearing the 100k mark again at 97100.
There are many headlines ahead of the inauguration on Monday, which is also a US market holiday, Martin Luther King Day:
- A Gaza ceasefire seems imminent.
- VW is an interesting stock to watch today after the company reported very low sales numbers in China.
- The SEC is suing Elon Musk for the way he took over Twitter.
- After Donald Trump's threat towards Greenland, Reuters reports active discussions in China regarding Taiwan.
Trade safely and expect sharp moves into the inauguration of Donald Trump
Wednesday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK , Sweden, France and US CPI.
- Fed Barkin speaks, Feds Beige Book.
- Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, BNY, Goldman Sachs,
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Filly Fed
- Earnings: tsmc, MBank of America. US Bancorp,
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Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet