Log in Open account
International
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew October 31 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Central banks Key as dovish hopes and earnings boost equities

Good Morning

       The week will most likely be driven by central banks and company earnings – unless there is a significant surprise elsewhere.

The Fed will release rates on Wednesday, the Royal Bank of Australia on tomorrow and the Bank of England on Thursday.

While there is little doubt that there will be a 75 Basis point hike on Wednesday, there are rising hopes for slightly more dovish outlook from there. The December meeting is only seen to hike by 50 basis points, the peak rate is currently seen at 4.92% in May 2023.

Equities rose on that hope on Friday, FX and rates are not yet convinced. US 10 year yields remain at 4% and the USD Index in near 111, the US 500 rose to 3887, the US Tech 100 to 11500 and the GER40 to 13300.

Besides hopes for a dovish Fed, a shift in earning expectations boosted the sentiment, Analysts now see third-quarter earnings growth of 4.1%, up from 2.5% for the 500 stocks in the S&P Index.

GBPUSD Is trading just below 1.16, EURUSD below parity again at 0.9940, USDJPY 147.90, Gold 1640 and Silver 19.10.

Headlines:

The Swiss National Bank lost 142.2 billion Swiss francs ($142.60 billion) in the first nine months of 2022

Credit Suisse released details of its plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs from investors, itis said to tap 20 banks for a capital increase acc to Reuters.

Chinas Manufacturing PMI disappointed at 49.2 vs 50 expected

Twitter was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, Options will be cash settled in November,

The UN, Turkey and Ukraine pressed ahead to implement a Black Sea grain deal

Apple is likely to suffer a substantial decline in IPhone production due to covid restrictions in China.,

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election in Brazil

Economic data:

Monday: Swiss FX Reserves, at HICP, EU HICP Inflation, EU GDP,

Tuesday: AU Rate, CN PMI, US PMI,

Wednesday: EU PMI, DE unemployment, FOMC Rate decision

Thursday: UK PMI and Rate decision, EU Unemployment, US PMI,

Friday; EU PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls

Earnings:

Tuesday: AMD, Pfizer, BP

Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, GSK, Booking, Qualcom, CVS,

Thursday: Cigna Corp, Amgen, Paypal, Starbucks, EOG, DBS,

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

NY Harbor ULSD - Nov 2022 (HOX2) will expire 31st Oct 15:00 GMT

Random Length Lumber - Nov 2022 (LBX2) will expire 1st Nov 15:00 GMT

      Expiring CFDs
:OILUKDEC22 will expire 31st Oct 16:00 GMT

 

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.