Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew October 31 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Central banks Key as dovish hopes and earnings boost equities
Good Morning
The week will most likely be driven by central banks and company earnings – unless there is a significant surprise elsewhere.
The Fed will release rates on Wednesday, the Royal Bank of Australia on tomorrow and the Bank of England on Thursday.
While there is little doubt that there will be a 75 Basis point hike on Wednesday, there are rising hopes for slightly more dovish outlook from there. The December meeting is only seen to hike by 50 basis points, the peak rate is currently seen at 4.92% in May 2023.
Equities rose on that hope on Friday, FX and rates are not yet convinced. US 10 year yields remain at 4% and the USD Index in near 111, the US 500 rose to 3887, the US Tech 100 to 11500 and the GER40 to 13300.
Besides hopes for a dovish Fed, a shift in earning expectations boosted the sentiment, Analysts now see third-quarter earnings growth of 4.1%, up from 2.5% for the 500 stocks in the S&P Index.
GBPUSD Is trading just below 1.16, EURUSD below parity again at 0.9940, USDJPY 147.90, Gold 1640 and Silver 19.10.
Headlines:
The Swiss National Bank lost 142.2 billion Swiss francs ($142.60 billion) in the first nine months of 2022
Credit Suisse released details of its plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs from investors, itis said to tap 20 banks for a capital increase acc to Reuters.
Chinas Manufacturing PMI disappointed at 49.2 vs 50 expected
Twitter was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, Options will be cash settled in November,
The UN, Turkey and Ukraine pressed ahead to implement a Black Sea grain deal
Apple is likely to suffer a substantial decline in IPhone production due to covid restrictions in China.,
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election in Brazil
Economic data:
Monday: Swiss FX Reserves, at HICP, EU HICP Inflation, EU GDP,
Tuesday: AU Rate, CN PMI, US PMI,
Wednesday: EU PMI, DE unemployment, FOMC Rate decision
Thursday: UK PMI and Rate decision, EU Unemployment, US PMI,
Friday; EU PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls
Earnings:
Tuesday: AMD, Pfizer, BP
Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, GSK, Booking, Qualcom, CVS,
Thursday: Cigna Corp, Amgen, Paypal, Starbucks, EOG, DBS,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
NY Harbor ULSD - Nov 2022 (HOX2) will expire 31st Oct 15:00 GMT
Random Length Lumber - Nov 2022 (LBX2) will expire 1st Nov 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
:OILUKDEC22 will expire 31st Oct 16:00 GMT
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.