How to stay on track in a volatile market: The four pillars of long-term investment success

How to stay on track in a volatile market: The four pillars of long-term investment success

Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Key points:

  • Volatility is normal—think long-term. Checking your portfolio daily fuels anxiety, but history shows that long-term investors always come out ahead. The S&P 500 has never delivered a negative 15-year return since World War Two.
  • Diversification and discipline are your best defense. A well-balanced portfolio helps cushion downturns, while sticking to your strategy prevents costly emotional decisions.
  • Consistency and low costs drive success. Regular investing and minimizing fees maximize your long-term returns—even in uncertain markets.

Let’s be honest—investing isn’t particularly easy (or fun) right now. The market is all over the place. One day, stocks are up on optimism. The next, they’re down because of a new round of tariffs or fears of an economic slowdown.

The S&P 500 is swinging wildly, and the “Magnificent 7”—Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft—have collectively lost over USD 1.5 trillion in market value in just a few months.

It’s no wonder investors are feeling nervous. But here’s the thing: market volatility isn’t a bug—it’s a feature. Since 1949, nearly half of all daily market returns have been negative. If you check your portfolio every day, you’re going to see a lot of red. But zoom out, and the picture changes completely. Over a 15-year period, the S&P 500 has never delivered a negative return—not once.

The market rewards patience and discipline. It punishes panic and short-term thinking. So if you’re feeling the urge to sell everything and sit in cash, stop. Now is the time to focus on what really matters: the long game. The most successful investors aren’t the ones who predict the next crash. They’re the ones who stick to a strategy and stay in the game.

And to do that, you need to build on four time-tested pillars of investment that will help you ride out the storm—and come out stronger on the other side.

Pillar 1. A long-term perspective: Ride out the storms

Short-term market swings can feel brutal. Prices fluctuate wildly based on things like trade policies, interest rates, corporate earnings, and even investor emotions. But zoom out, and you’ll see that over decades, markets tend to go up.

Look at what’s happening right now: The market is down due to uncertainty around tariffs and a potential recession. But we’ve been here before. Trade wars. Recessions. Wars. Banking crises. Pandemics. Political instability. The market has faced it all—and still, long-term investors who stayed the course have been rewarded.

Think about this for a second: If you check your portfolio every single day, almost half the time, it will show a loss. Over the past 75 years, 46% of all daily returns on the S&P 500 have been negative. That’s enough to make anyone anxious. But here’s where it gets interesting.

If you extend your time horizon to one month, the percentage of negative periods drops to 39%. Over one year, negative returns happen only 26% of the time. Over five years, that number shrinks to just 15%. At ten years, markets have been positive a staggering 93% of the time. And here’s the kicker: Over a 15-year period, the S&P 500 has never delivered a negative return. Not once since World War II. Let’s take a moment to reflect on that.

The key? Stop obsessing over short-term movements. If you’re investing for retirement, your kids’ education, or long-term wealth, what happens this week or even this year shouldn’t matter.

What could you do? Resist the urge to check your portfolio daily—it only fuels anxiety. Think in decades, not days.

Pillar 2. Diversification: your portfolio’s shock absorber

Of course, holding investments for the long term only works if you can stomach the volatility. That’s where diversification comes in—it’s your portfolio’s shock absorber.

Take the technology sector, for example. The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have taken a massive hit in 2025, shedding over USD 1.5 trillion in market value. If your portfolio was heavily concentrated in tech, you’re feeling the pain right now. But if you had a mix of stocks, bonds, and international investments, the impact would have been far less severe.

“A well-diversified portfolio reduces risk while still capturing growth. You might not always hit home runs, but you won’t strike out completely, either.”

What could you do? Review your portfolio. If you’re overly concentrated in one stock, one sector, or one country, consider rebalancing. Diversification helps you survive the downturns and thrive in the recoveries.

Pillar 3. Discipline: follow your strategy, not your emotions

Markets go up and down. That’s just reality. But if you let fear and greed dictate your decisions, your portfolio will suffer. Right now, investors are worried about tariffs, interest rates, and a potential recession. They’re wondering if they should sell and move into cash. But history shows that emotional decisions almost always lead to regret.

When stocks are soaring, people get greedy. They chase hot stocks at inflated prices. When markets crash, fear takes over. Investors panic and sell at the worst possible time. This emotional cycle destroys returns.

The best investors? They stay disciplined. They don’t try to time the market. They don’t jump from strategy to strategy. They have a plan and stick to it—no matter what the headlines say.

“Think of investing like planting a tree. You don’t dig it up and replant it every time the weather changes. You let it grow.”

What could you do? Create a simple rule: Only review your portfolio quarterly—not daily. Set clear, pre-defined rules for when and why you’d make changes. If your financial goals and risk tolerance haven’t changed, neither should your strategy.

Pillar 4. Consistency & cost efficiency: small tweaks, big impact

Investing isn’t just about picking the right assets—it’s also about how you invest. Two things make a massive difference over time: regular investing and low costs.

First, let’s talk about consistency. The smartest way to handle market ups and downs? Dollar-cost averaging—investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, no matter what the market is doing. This strategy removes emotion from the equation and ensures you buy more when prices are low and less when they’re high.

Now, let’s talk about costs. A fund with a 1.5% annual fee might not seem like much, but over 30 years, it can cost you hundreds of thousands in lost returns. Similarly, high transaction costs and hidden fees will over time be a significant drag on your returns. High fees are silent wealth killers. The less you pay in fees, the more you keep for yourself.

So what could you do? Set up automated investments like AutoInvest to remove decision-making stress. Also, check the fees you’re paying—if you’re in high-cost funds, consider switching to lower-cost alternatives.

Final thoughts: will you panic… or prosper?

The market is volatile right now. Tariffs, recession fears, and rate uncertainty are rattling investors. But long-term investing success isn’t about avoiding downturns—it’s about managing them wisely.

When the next market crash comes—and it will—ask yourself:

  • Will you panic-sell at the bottom, or will you stay invested and ride the recovery?
  • Will you chase hot stocks at their peak, or will you stick to your plan?
  • Will you obsess over daily market moves, or will you think in decades?

The best investors aren’t the smartest or the luckiest. They’re the ones who stay in the game. The market rewards patience. It punishes impulsive decisions. Which kind of investor will you be? Fortunes aren’t made by predicting the next crash. They’re made by staying invested through all of them.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.