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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Brent and WTI Crude oil breaking bullish. Dutch gas lower. Henry Hub gas higher
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Brent and WTI Crude oil have broken bullish out of its week long range bound pattern. 5-10% upside potential
Dutch Gas sliding lower testing key support. Bounce or break?
Henry Hub gas short-term uptrend. $3 resistance could be tested
Brent Crude oil closed yesterday above resistance at around 78.66 thereby breaking bullish out of its range bound trading.
RSI closed above 60 threshold supporting the bullish move and if Brent oil also closes above the Cloud i.e. above 79.38 the bullish picture is complete.
A bullish picture that could take Brent oil to the 200 daily Moving Average and resistance around 82.50-83.00. If closing above 83 there is upside potential to around 87-88.
If that scenario plays out Brent oil would also break above its medium-term falling trendline.
To establish a bullish medium-term trend a close above 89.10 is needed.
If Brent Oil slides back into its range and closes below 75 the bullish scenario has been demolished
Light Sweet Crude oil (WTI) is at the time of writing trading above resistance around 74.75. WTI is above the Cloud and RSI is above 60 threshold strongly indicating WTI is likely to move higher in coming weeks.
Some resistance around the 200 daily Moving Average and at around 79.18. A close above 79.18 is likely to lead to 83.25-83.50
If WTI slides back to close below 70 the short-term uptrend is demolished.
Medium-term on the weekly chart the 200 Moving Average has proven too strong a support for Bears to take out.
Strong resistance at around 83.50.
Dutch TTF gas has resumed down trend after being rejected at 50 resistance level. Currently testing 0.786 retracement Dutch gas could drop further if closing below 28.10.
RSI is currently testing 40 threshold a close below will confirm down trend. A bounce could lead to Dutch gas bounding to around 37-38.
To reverse the short-term down trend a close above 39.80 is needed.
Henry Hub Gas in a short-term uptrend that could take it to test resistance at around 3.00
A close below 2.53 is likely to reverse the uptrend. A break below its lower rising trendline could be first warning of that scenario to play out.
RSI is bullish indicating higher Gas prices
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