Technical Update - Brent and WTI Crude oil breaking bullish. Dutch gas lower. Henry Hub gas higher

Technical Update - Brent and WTI Crude oil breaking bullish. Dutch gas lower. Henry Hub gas higher

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Brent and WTI Crude oil have broken bullish out of its week long range bound pattern. 5-10% upside potential
Dutch Gas sliding lower testing key support. Bounce or break?
Henry Hub gas short-term uptrend. $3 resistance could be tested


Brent Crude oil closed yesterday above resistance at around 78.66 thereby breaking bullish out of its range bound trading.
RSI closed above 60 threshold supporting the bullish move and if Brent oil also closes above the Cloud i.e. above 79.38 the bullish picture is complete.

A bullish picture that could take Brent oil to the 200 daily Moving Average and resistance around 82.50-83.00. If closing above 83 there is upside potential to around 87-88.

If that scenario plays out Brent oil would also break above its medium-term falling trendline.
To establish a bullish medium-term trend a close above 89.10 is needed.

If Brent Oil slides back into its range and closes below 75 the bullish scenario has been demolished

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Light Sweet Crude oil (WTI) is at the time of writing trading above resistance around 74.75. WTI is above the Cloud and RSI is above 60 threshold strongly indicating WTI is likely to move higher in coming weeks.
Some resistance around the 200 daily Moving Average and at around 79.18. A close above 79.18 is likely to lead to 83.25-83.50

If WTI slides back to close below 70 the short-term uptrend is demolished.

Medium-term on the weekly chart the 200 Moving Average has proven too strong a support for Bears to take out.
Strong resistance at around 83.50.

Dutch TTF gas has resumed down trend after being rejected at 50 resistance level. Currently testing 0.786 retracement Dutch gas could drop further if closing below 28.10.

RSI is currently testing 40 threshold a close below will confirm down trend. A bounce could lead to Dutch gas bounding to around 37-38.

To reverse the short-term down trend a close above 39.80 is needed.

Henry Hub Gas in a short-term uptrend that could take it to test resistance at around 3.00
A close below 2.53 is likely to reverse the uptrend. A break below its lower rising trendline could be first warning of that scenario to play out.
RSI is bullish indicating higher Gas prices

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.