The Evolving AI Narrative: From Semis to Software

The Evolving AI Narrative: From Semis to Software

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Key points:

  • Shift from Hardware to Software: AI enthusiasm is moving from semiconductors like NVIDIA and AMD to software leaders such as Salesforce and Palantir, signaling a maturing market narrative.
  • Why Software? Software companies are driving AI adoption with tools for data utilization, enterprise integration, and scalable revenue models, making them indispensable in the AI ecosystem.
  • Potential Emerging Winners: Cloud giants like Microsoft and Oracle, AI-powered cybersecurity firms like Crowdstrike, and generative AI pioneers like Adobe are poised to benefit from this shift.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The market's obsession with AI is evolving. After fueling a massive rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, the enthusiasm is now shifting toward software companies, with names like Marvell, Snowflake and Palantir leading the charge. This pivot underscores the growing realization that AI's true potential lies in its application across industries, not just in the hardware powering it.

The Semiconductor Surge

Semiconductors were the initial winners of the AI boom, driven by the race to develop the processing power needed for advanced AI models. NVIDIA's leadership in GPUs and AMD's innovations positioned them as the flagship names of the rally. While these "shovels" remain essential tools in the ongoing AI gold rush, the spotlight is shifting. As the focus moves to delivering real-world AI applications, investor enthusiasm is increasingly turning toward software companies that bring AI to life.

Why Software Is the Next Frontier

  • Data Utilization: Snowflake specializes in data storage and analytics, providing the critical infrastructure to harness and deploy AI effectively. Its strong position in the data space enables companies to leverage AI for business intelligence and analytics at scale.
  • AI Monetization Success: Salesforce’s AgentForce, launched in October, is an early success in AI monetization, enhancing sales processes with AI-driven automation and personalization capabilities.
  • AI Integration: Palantir has established itself as a leader in operational AI and decision-making tools, helping enterprises integrate AI seamlessly into their workflows. With its stock up 300% YTD, Palantir's AI platform is gaining traction in government, defense, and enterprise sectors, positioning it as a standout in the AI ecosystem.
  • Broader Applications: Unlike semis, whose primary growth is tied to hardware sales, software companies benefit from recurring revenues and diverse use cases across sectors.

As adoption deepens, the focus will likely move toward companies offering scalable AI solutions for enterprises. Investors looking to ride this wave should consider a barbell strategy—balancing exposure between the hardware providers (semiconductors) and the enablers (software companies).

Who Could Be the Next Winners in the AI Revolution?

The next wave of AI winners will likely span industries that incorporate AI into their operations and products. Cloud computing, cybersecurity, healthcare, and generative AI remain key areas of focus.

1. Cloud Providers

Cloud infrastructure is critical for storing, processing, and deploying AI solutions. These giants stand to benefit as AI adoption grows.

  • Microsoft (MSFT): Integrating OpenAI’s models into Azure, driving enterprise AI adoption.
  • Amazon (AMZN): AWS’s suite of AI and machine learning tools like SageMaker continues to lead.
  • Oracle (ORCL): Positioned well with its AI-powered cloud solutions and strong focus on enterprise clients.
  • Alphabet (GOOGL): Google Cloud leverages its deep AI expertise and market-leading research.

2. AI-Powered Cybersecurity

The surge in AI adoption raises the stakes for protecting systems and data, making AI-driven cybersecurity solutions a critical growth area.

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD): Pioneering predictive threat detection with AI.
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Expanding its use of AI to enhance network security and threat prevention.

3. Generative AI Applications

Generative AI is transforming industries, from content creation to drug discovery, offering immense growth potential for enabling platforms.

  • Adobe (ADBE): Its Firefly tools cater to the growing demand for generative content creation.
  • ServiceNow (NOW): Using generative AI to automate workflows and enhance productivity.

4. AI-Oriented SaaS and Data Companies

As AI adoption scales, SaaS and data companies providing the foundation for AI solutions are becoming indispensable.

  • Snowflake (SNOW): Enabling data-driven AI applications with its robust platform.
  • Palantir (PLTR): Operational AI and decision-making tools make it a standout in enterprise markets.

5. AI-Powered Healthcare

The healthcare sector is poised for disruption as AI transforms diagnostics, drug discovery, and personalized medicine.

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): AI-powered robotics enhance surgical precision.
  • Moderna (MRNA): Using AI to accelerate vaccine development and mRNA innovations.

6. Hardware Beyond Semiconductors

AI requires a broader ecosystem of specialized hardware beyond semiconductors, creating new opportunities.

  • Arista Networks (ANET): Providing networking solutions tailored for AI-scale workloads.
  • Pure Storage (PSTG): Gaining traction for its AI-optimized storage solutions.

7. AI-Powered Consumer Products

As AI integrates into consumer technologies, companies leveraging AI in smart devices, AR/VR, and autonomous vehicles stand to gain.

  • Apple (AAPL): Innovating AI-driven features in its ecosystem and exploring AR/VR.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Advancing AI in autonomous driving and energy solutions.

ETF Opportunities

  • For Semis Exposure: Consider ETFs like SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) or SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF).
  • For AI Software: Look at funds like AIQ (Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF) or BOTZ (Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF).
  • For Cloud Growth: Consider CLOU (Global X Cloud Computing ETF)
  • For AI-driven Cybersecurity: HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF)
  • For Automation and Robotics Exposure: ROBO (Global X Robotics & AI ETF)

By focusing on these next-wave beneficiaries, investors can position themselves to capitalize on AI’s transformative potential across the economy.

 

Saxo's AI theme basket comprises a selection of publicly traded companies that have a substantial portion of their business models tied to AI growth.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.