Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 14 April 2025
Koen Hoorelbeke
Investment and Options Strategist
Weekly Market Recap & What's Ahead
14 April (week of 7 to 11 April 2025)
Key Takeaways
- Markets saw extreme volatility from escalating US-China tariffs.
- Tech sector sharply impacted, but rebounded temporarily.
- VIX spiked significantly midweek, reflecting high investor anxiety.
- Gold prices hit record highs, reflecting market uncertainty.
- Bitcoin outperformed equities amid lower relative volatility.
Market Recap (7 to 11 April 2025)
Equities
- US markets experienced dramatic swings due to tariff tensions. Monday (7 Apr) saw significant losses, with the Dow dropping -0.91% and S&P 500 slipping -0.23%, entering bear territory. Nasdaq gained slightly (+0.2%) boosted by tech names like Nvidia (+3.5%) and Amazon (+2.5%) (8 Apr). Wednesday’s tariff pause triggered a historic rebound with Nasdaq soaring +12.16% (10 Apr), but Thursday (10 Apr) reversed gains sharply, Nasdaq falling -4.31% amid renewed tariff fears (11 Apr).
- European equities were hit hard initially (7 Apr), with STOXX 50 dropping -5.4% (8 Apr), but rebounded strongly on tariff relief optimism, jumping +4.4% (11 Apr).
- Asian markets rallied strongly midweek, notably Japan’s Nikkei surging nearly +7% (8 Apr), but renewed tariff escalation saw markets retreat again by Friday.
Volatility
The VIX surged sharply midweek, peaking above 60 on Monday (7 Apr), before retreating significantly (-35.75%) following Wednesday’s tariff pause announcement (10 Apr). Volatility again surged on renewed tariff escalation Thursday, closing at 40.72 (+21.12%) (11 Apr), reflecting continued high market uncertainty.
Digital Assets
Bitcoin showed resilience, gaining amid market turmoil, rising +1.85% to above $81,000 by Thursday (10 Apr), and maintained lower volatility compared to equities. Ethereum and Solana also rebounded significantly following midweek relief (11 Apr). Crypto stocks like Marathon Digital (+17%) and MicroStrategy (+10.2%) rallied strongly.
Fixed Income
The US Treasury market saw massive volatility, with yields on the 10-year benchmark spiking to nearly 4.65% midweek (8 Apr). Despite temporary stabilization, yields closed the week elevated near 4.50% (14 Apr), reflecting investor concerns over fiscal stability amid tariff-related pressures.
Commodities
Gold hit a fresh record high at $3,220 by Friday (11 Apr), driven by market instability and tariff uncertainties. Oil prices saw significant swings, briefly dipping below $60 before recovering slightly, reflecting global recession fears and volatile trade conditions.
Currencies
The US dollar experienced extreme volatility, weakening significantly against safe-haven currencies (JPY, EUR, CHF) as tariff uncertainties undermined investor confidence. EURUSD briefly surged above 1.1400 (14 Apr), and USDJPY dropped below 143.00, demonstrating heightened risk sensitivity in currency markets.
Looking Ahead (14 to 18 April 2025)
- Monday: Earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS), Fed’s Waller speech.
- Tuesday: Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) earnings; US Import/Export price index.
- Wednesday: US Retail sales data, Industrial production, ASML earnings.
- Thursday: Housing starts data, Netflix (NFLX), TSMC (TSM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earnings.
- Friday: Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
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