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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - European Equities rebounds after heavy sell off
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: After being hit with heavy selling past couple of days the European Equities are bouncing this morning with buyers trying to buy on the cheap. Volatility should still be expected coming days and sellers can quickly regain control
DAX tested its support area around 15,100-15,000 in what could be the third wave down. Rebounding this morning with a gap could be the fourth corrective wave in the making. A move that can take the Index to the 0,618 Fibonacci retracement of the second wave at around 15,655. However, still expect volatility over the next few days when. If the DAX moves above 15,725 the 5 wave down scenario is demolished.
If the Index closes the gap from this morning another push towards support at around 14,800 should be expected. RSI is indicating bearish sentiment i.e. we could still see lower levels.
The GER40 CFD (future) spiked below the 15K level to the support at 14,827 before a strong rebound. A rebound that could continue to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of what looks like the third wave down.
If the GER40 moves above 15,723 the 5 wave down scenario is demolished. A move below today’s low at 15,129 expect another push to test the important support at 14,827.
OMX C25 cap seems to have found support at around 1,700. Bounce should be expected from here. Resistance at around 1,800.
NETH25 (AEX future) seems be caught a bit in “no man’s land” right in the middle between two support levels. The upper previous support at 750 is now a resistance for the bounce that seems to have set in from the morning. However, the resistance is not that strong and a bounce towards the 200 SMA is likely.
A break below 734 will very likely result in a sell off down to support at around 711.
FRA40 (CAC40 future) has bounced off strongly from its 6,730 support and the 200 SMA. The Index is back above the lower rising trend line pushing towards 7,000. 55 SMA will offer some resistance. Crucial support at around 6,658
SWISS20 (SMI future) has been hard hit by the sell off hitting markets. Price was pushed below the support at around 12,047 and the 200 SMA. If the bounce can hold on til the end of the day the SWISS20 would have formed a Doji Morning star bottom and reversal pattern. A reversal that can take the Index to the 0,618 Fibonacci retracement at around 12,516
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