Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX still trading below short term falling trend line and is technically in a down trend. To neutralize or reverse the down trend a daily close above 14,600 is needed. At the time of writing RSI is being rejected at 60 threshold i.e. still in negative sentiment and no divergence .
If DAX closes the gap from this morning and closes below 13,970 selling pressure is likely to intensify.
EuroStoxx50 down trend is intact. A daily close below 3,692 is likely to fuel selling pressure. A daily close above 3,834 a short term move towards 3,900-3,950 should be expected.
CAC40 trading in short term falling channel 21th April where market closed above falling trend line seems to be an outlier day – a false break out. This morning CAC40 seems to be rejected at the 55 daily SMA and the upper trend line in the channel.
If CAC closes above 6,602 a move towards strong resistance around 6,750 could be seen.
AEX moving in a falling channel. Seems to be rejected at 55 daily SMA. Closing gap from this morning and moving below 700 is likely to intensify selling pressure. If closing the day above 720 we could se a short move towards 732-741.