Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - ASX 200, Hang Seng and China A50
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: ASX 200 uptrend is weakening and could perform a correction before it reaches resistance area
Hang Seng And China A50 have both formed top and reversal patterns strongly indicating a correction to unfold
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
ASX 200 uptrend is slowing as the Index is nearing strong resistance area around 7,592-7,625. There is minor divergence on RSI indicating a weakening of the uptrend. A correction could be seen before ASX 200 reaches the resistance area. A correction that could take ASX 200 down to around 7,300-7,250. 21 and 55 SMA’s will provide some support limiting the correction but a dip down to support at 7,167 should not be ruled out.
However, the uptrend is still intact and ASX could move higher before a correction. Divergence on RSI is just a warning of a looming trend exhaustion and reversal behaviour.
Hang Seng Index has formed an Evening Star like pattern over the past three days. A correction is likely. A test of the lower rising trendline and the support at around 21,388 should be expected. If Hang Closes below the trend line and below 21,388 a sell-off down to around 20K could be seen possibly dipping down to the 0.382 retracement at 19,605 and to the 200 daily SMA.
To cancel and reverse the reversal pattern a close above 22,700 is needed.
There is no divergence on RSI indicating Hang Sang could move higher above 22,700 after a correction. No strong resistance until around 25K
FTSE China A50 has formed an Evening Doji Star like pattern which is an indication of top and reversal. A correction is in the cards and support 13,500 could be tested. However, a dip down to the 200 daily SMA and 0.382 retracement at 13,191 should not come as a surprise.
If A50 moves higher, which RSI indicates it could, a close above 14,445 will demolish and reverse the top and reversal and correction scenario, and A50 would be set for a move to resistance at around 15K.
RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...