Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Hang Seng Index seems range bound between 17,120 and 18,445. Break out is needed for direction.
The Gap from earlier this month is key. If Hang Seng drops to close the gap i.e., a close below 16,640, the bear trend is set to resume.
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating another push higher. Resistance at 18,445 is key for further upside to 20K
FTSE China A50 was rejected at the 0.382/0.618 retracement of the short-term/medium-term down trend around 12,630.
Sentiment displayed by RSI is negative indicating the down trend could resume after this correction. A close below 11,969 will confirm this scenario.
For A50 to add to upside momentum a close above the falling black trendline and 12,682 is needed. If that occurs expect a move to around 13K possibly 13,500 resistance.