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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Heavy sell-off hits Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 – How low could they go?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USNAS100 and US500 CFD levels included in the analysis
The Nasdaq 100 formed a bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern in mid-August and was hit by heavy sell-off yesterday.
Key support at around 18,654 is likely to be tested shortly. A daily close below this level could further fuel a sell-off down to around 18,000 and the 200 DMA.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing positive sentiment, but a daily close below 40 will reverse that, further supporting the bearish move for the Nasdaq.
For the Nasdaq 100 to reverse the bearish outlook and resume its bullish move, a daily close above 19,939 is required.
Key support at around 18,654 is likely to be tested shortly. A daily close below this level could further fuel a sell-off down to around 18,000 and the 200 DMA.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing positive sentiment, but a daily close below 40 will reverse that, further supporting the bearish move for the Nasdaq.
For the Nasdaq 100 to reverse the bearish outlook and resume its bullish move, a daily close above 19,939 is required.
USNAS100 CFD touched support and the 0.382 retracement at around 18,883 yesterday.
Trading around that level today, selling pressure is likely to continue.
A daily close below 18,883 combined with an RSI close below the 40 threshold (i.e., in negative sentiment) will confirm the bearish outlook, with downside potential to the 200 daily Moving Average around 18,000.
Trading around that level today, selling pressure is likely to continue.
A daily close below 18,883 combined with an RSI close below the 40 threshold (i.e., in negative sentiment) will confirm the bearish outlook, with downside potential to the 200 daily Moving Average around 18,000.
The S&P 500 sell-off dipped to just a few cents above the upper boundary of the key gap area between 5,501 and 5,455. A daily close of the gap (i.e., a daily close below 5,455) is a bearish signal likely to send the index lower.
Divergence on RSI has indicated trend exhaustion, supporting a reversal.
A daily close below 5,455 could further fuel a sell-off down to 5,375, where the 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support.
However, the S&P 500 could dip further to the support at around 5,314.
For the S&P 500 to resume its bullish trend, a daily close above 5,613 is required.
Divergence on RSI has indicated trend exhaustion, supporting a reversal.
A daily close below 5,455 could further fuel a sell-off down to 5,375, where the 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support.
However, the S&P 500 could dip further to the support at around 5,314.
For the S&P 500 to resume its bullish trend, a daily close above 5,613 is required.
US 500 CFD Levels:
Yesterday’s trading wiped out two weeks of gains, however small.
Finding support at the 55 Moving Average, with additional support at around 5,403 where the 100 Moving Average is coming up.
A daily close below this level could fuel a sell-off down to 5,200–5,100.
To resume and extend the uptrend, a daily close above 5,465 is required.
Yesterday’s trading wiped out two weeks of gains, however small.
Finding support at the 55 Moving Average, with additional support at around 5,403 where the 100 Moving Average is coming up.
A daily close below this level could fuel a sell-off down to 5,200–5,100.
To resume and extend the uptrend, a daily close above 5,465 is required.
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