Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - UBS Group: Indicators sending signs of trend exhaustion. Will Earnings change that?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
UBS Group has during its strong uptrend since July performed two Gaps. Normally there are three gaps during a strong bullish trend: Break-away, Continuation and Exhaustion gap. An Exhaustion gap is a gap higher before the trend exhausts and trend reverses.
We are missing one. Could we see an Exhaustion gap when UBS report Earnings later this week?
Both Volume and RSI are indicating weakening of the trend with divergence as illustrated by the falling dashed lines.
The high close 28th August did not correspond to a higher RSI value and Volume has been steadily declining since the Break away gap.
(Divergence – where price is moving higher but indicator values are declining - indicates an imbalance of the trend – it is simply getting weaker. It is not a top and reversal signal but a warning sign of a trend is likely to exhaust)
However, a new higher close in UBS could cancel the divergence.
If instead market gets disappointed sending UBS to close the 2nd gap i.e., closing below 21.32 it could be hit with a larger sell-off/correction that could take the share price down to test the upper level in the Break away gap at 20.
We are missing one. Could we see an Exhaustion gap when UBS report Earnings later this week?
Both Volume and RSI are indicating weakening of the trend with divergence as illustrated by the falling dashed lines.
The high close 28th August did not correspond to a higher RSI value and Volume has been steadily declining since the Break away gap.
(Divergence – where price is moving higher but indicator values are declining - indicates an imbalance of the trend – it is simply getting weaker. It is not a top and reversal signal but a warning sign of a trend is likely to exhaust)
However, a new higher close in UBS could cancel the divergence.
If instead market gets disappointed sending UBS to close the 2nd gap i.e., closing below 21.32 it could be hit with a larger sell-off/correction that could take the share price down to test the upper level in the Break away gap at 20.
Weekly chart is showing RSI divergence but a price gap higher could cancel just that. It would need a weekly RSI close above the horizontal dashed line.
If we do not see UBS closing below the 2nd gap but instead is moving higher, the bullish trend could continue a few weeks more to the 1.382 projection at 23.32, possibly to the 1.618 projection at 24.85
If we do not see UBS closing below the 2nd gap but instead is moving higher, the bullish trend could continue a few weeks more to the 1.382 projection at 23.32, possibly to the 1.618 projection at 24.85
Monthly chart. UBS is close to its strong resistance at around 22.25-22.55. A close above could pave the way for higher levels towards 32-32 longer-term. Resistance at around 25.75
A rejection could initiate a correction as mentioned above
A rejection could initiate a correction as mentioned above
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...