Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
If GBPUSD breaks above 1.15 there is room up to around 1.1738. However, 55 SMA is coming down indicating underlying sentiment is declining and RSI is still below 60 threshold and must close above to reverse that. . GBPUSD slides back and RSI drops back below 40 last week’s lows at around 1.0922 is likely to be tested but lower levels are quite likely to be seen .
EURGBP is bouncing off 100 SMA around 0.8571 support, now back above 55 SMA. RSI has bounced off its 40 Threshold and sentiment is still positive indicating EURGBP could rebound further from here. If EURGBP breaks above the steep falling trendline minor resistance at 0.8867 is likely to be tested.
First sign of this scenario to play out is likely to be RSI breaking above its falling trendline. Keep an eye on that to occur.
If EURGBP on the other hand, breaks below 0.8570 and RSI closes below 40 it is likely to reverse the scenario and EURGBP to drop further to 0.8450-0.8350.