Trading USDJPY via FX option spreads

Trading USDJPY via FX option spreads

Forex
Sean Teo

Sales Trader

Summary:

The recent change in the Federal Reserve's position has influenced Treasury yields, combining with the fact that the Bank of Japan has been consistently dovish at policy announcements has impacted USDJPY. How can traders or investors utilize FX options to benefit from this?

What is happening?

The recent shift in the Federal Reserve's stance of delaying rate cuts, driven by persistent inflation and sustained labor market strength in the US, has led to a rise in Treasury yields. This has widened the gap with Japanese government bond yields, putting downward pressure on the yen. Additionally, increased treasury issuance ahead of record auctions has contributed to lower treasury prices and higher yields. The recent 5-year Treasury auction resulted in a higher yield than expected, indicating lower demand, and thus driving bond prices lower and yields higher. At the same time, the equity market sentiment is leaning towards risk-on, with easing geopolitical tensions and resilient technology sector earnings contributing to a positive outlook.

USDJPY chart

USDJPY 1

With the recent developments in USDJPY, how might a trader use FX options to express an outlook on the currency and potentially capitalize on future movements?

Bullish strategies

Bull call spread (Debit) - Used by traders with a moderately bullish outlook to profit from upward asset price movement while mitigating risk.

How it works:

  • Buy a call option with a lower strike price.
  • Simultaneously sell a call option with a higher strike price.
  • Both options are typically for the same asset and expiration date.

Pros:

  • Cheaper than outright call option
  • Limited risk

Cons:

  • Profit potential is capped.
  • Will need to pay for the option spread.
USDJPY 2

 

Bull put spread (Credit) - Used by traders with a moderately bullish outlook to profit from upward asset price movement while mitigating risk.

How it works:

  • Buy a put option with a lower strike price.
  • Simultaneously sell a put option with a higher strike price.
  • Both options are typically for the same asset and expiration date.

Pros:

  • Will receive premium from the option spread.
  • Limited risk

Cons:

  • Profit potential is capped.
USDJPY 3


Bullish seagull spread - Used by traders with a moderately bullish outlook and think that the underlying asset will not go below a certain price.

How it works:

  • Purchase a call option at a lower strike price.
  • Sell a call option at a higher strike price to finance the trade.
  • Lastly, sell a put option at an even lower strike price.

Pros:

  • Receive premium from the spread.
  • Cheaper than an outright call option.

 Cons:

  • Profit potential is capped.
  • Significant risk if underlying drops significantly.
USDJPY 4


Bearish strategies

Bear call spread (Credit) - Used by traders with a moderately bearish outlook to profit from downward asset price movement while mitigating risk.

How it works:

  • Sell a call option with a lower strike price.
  • Simultaneously buy a call option with a higher strike price
  • Both options typically have the same expiration date and underlying asset

Pros:

  • Receive a premium for the option spread.
  • Limited risk
Cons:
  • Profit potential is capped.
USDJPY 5


Bear put spread (Debit) - Used by traders with a moderately bearish outlook to profit from downward asset price movement while mitigating risk.

How it works:

  • Buy a put option with a higher strike price.
  • Simultaneously sell a put option with a lower strike price
  • Both options typically have the same expiration date and underlying asset

Pros:

  • Cheaper than outright put option.
  • Limited risk

Cons:

  • Profit potential is capped.
  • Will need to pay for the option spread.
USDJPY 6


Bearish seagull spread - Used by traders with a moderately bearish outlook and think that the underlying asset will not go above a certain price.

How it works:

  • Purchase a put option at a lower strike price.
  • Sell a put option at a higher strike price to finance the trade.
  • Lastly, sell a call option at an even higher strike price.

Pros:

  • Receive premium from the spread.
  • Cheaper than an outright put option.

Cons:

  • Profit potential is capped.
  • Significant risk if the underlying rises significantly.
USDJPY 7


Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Capital Markets' Terms of Use, you will find more information on this in the Important Information - Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Capital Markets' website.
This article may or may not have been enriched with the support of advanced AI technology, including OpenAI's ChatGPT and/or other similar platforms. The initial setup, research and final proofing are done by the author.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.