Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Macro Digest: European banks and liquidity risk driving this latest round of turmoil
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The biggest long position in the market is long European Bank Stocks based on rising interest margin and the perception of improving conditions. Their sharp sell-off is a major LIQUIDITY RISK to this market
The biggest long position in the market is long European Bank Stocks based on rising interest margin and the perception of improving conditions. Their sharp sell-off is a major LIQUIDITY RISK to this market…..
I have commented extensively on this banking issue, and the lack of real solutions from Fed. To me the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) meltdown and bankruptcy was the Bear Stearns of 2007 when they told market they had ample liquidity and then saw two funds blow up, followed by the end of the bank as it was sold for pennies on the dollar to JP Morgan Chase. Market rallied 4.8% back then (we did 2.5% yesterday) and think it feels like 15%.
The key development here is that interbank market sees liquidity drying up (much higher volatility) after the Credit Suisse story – long developing, but now accelerating as of this morning and discussed below.
The first rule of investing is that the return OF money is more important than the return ON money. Market figuring this out the hard way today.
Fundamentally the ignition of this morning sell-off was the Credit Suisse headline:
The CDS of Credit Suisse is now same level as when Deutsche Bank faced the same existential issues.
On the “too big to fail” concept – remember Credit Suisse is really two companies – CS AG, which is too big to fail, but 100% Swiss entity and CS International, which has no such guarantees.
Here are quick overview charts to show the market “pain” (note that Credit Suisse CDS prices are on the left axis).
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...