Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew 10 August 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will the CPI decide the taper?


Good Morning,

Markets continue to digest higher US yields, with the US Dollar rising to 93 in the USD Index, 1.1738 against the EUR GBPUSD trades at 1.3845, Gold at 1734 and Silver at 23.60. Gold tested the 1720 support again over night which so far held. If we breach that level, 1680 would be key. , Silver support lies around 23.20 ahead of 22.50/22.00. Bitcoin exceeds 45k and US Crude oil 67.40.

Equities remained fairly calm yesterday and overnight, just slightly off all time highs in most indexes, Dax trades at 15750 in the CFD with the key level at 15800, the US 30 trades just above 35000the US 500 at 4427 and the US Tech 100 at 15125. The Swiss Index posted a new all time high yesterday and is trading near the top.

We saw some shift out of rate sensitive stocks into banks who would profit from a steeper yield curve.

Key event coming up is the US CPI tomorrow expected at 0.5% monthly and 5.3% annually, before that, the German ZEW today at 11, US Labor costs at 14:30 and the German CPI tomorrow will be of interest. The German CPI is expected at 3.8% annually, a number near that level will cause further calls for tapering by the Bundesbank. The US Senate is scheduled to vote on the infrastructure bill at 17:00 CET today.

Headlines:

Global warming is dangerously close to spiraling out of control, according U.N. climate report

Bionteck is values at almost twice as high as Bayer

Softbanks Profit falls 39%

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

10 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Current Account NSA JPY

Jun

779.8B

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jul

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jul

2.8%

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jul

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Aug

57.0

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Aug

30.0

10 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA Inflation Index MM

Jul

0.93%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jul

1,700.00B

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jul

8.7%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jul

1,200.0B

11 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

HICP Final YY

Jul

3.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

-1.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

0.9%

11 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

Jun

9.00%

11 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jul

5.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

Jun

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

Jun

0.7%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

Jun

15.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

Jun

0.4%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim QQ

Q2

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim YY

Q2

22.1%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Aug

19.00%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

373k

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

0.1%

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

1.6%

13 Aug 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Jun

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jul

1.4%

13 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Aug

81.2

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

(refinitv)

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.