Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew February 20 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Key News:
US Indexes traded slow in high volumes again, the key companies to watch were
- Nikola, filing for chapter 11, down nearly 40%
- Palantir down 11% on a report Pete Hegseth ordered the military to slash 8% from the defense budget in each of the next five years
- Celanese down 21% on weak earnings,
- Shift 4 gives up 17% on earnings and takeover news,
- Airbus is expecting deliveries to go up 7% in 2025
- Mercedes car revenue is down 40% and cuts outlook
The Dax took a break yesterday after hawkish comments from the ECB
Yields and USD index remain little changed at 4.51% and 106.96 respectively, EURUSD fell to 1.0430 while GBPUSD receded to 1.2600. USDJPY dropped to 150.16. Gold rose to new records t 2948 and Silver is again testing the 32.95.
Drivers to markets remain difficult to assess with little data to go around and the impacts of the Trump administration unclear as of yet, key task will be to separate the news form the noise.
Reuters is featuring the risk of stagflation in the US again as there seems to be little immediate growth spur and inflation stubbornly high and growth apparently slow given the little data we currently have. The FOMC minutes stressed persistent inflation and the fear that Donald Trump's initial policy proposals would raise prices. Housing starts fell almost ten % in Jan, painting a beak picture.
China left Rates unchanged, German Producer Prices came lower than expected and the Danish GDP Rose this morning,
Focus will the on the Philly Fed and EU Consumer Confidence as well as Alibaba earnings today, the interest in precious metals s rising overall and will be important for sentiment as well
- Thursday: China Loan Prime Rates, Denmark GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, EU Consumer Confidence, AU PMI,
Earnings Alibaba, Walmart, Rivian, Dropbox, - Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, international PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings Arbor
Expiries
- KCH5 will expire on 19 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- PAH5 will expire on 20 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- ZOH5 will expire on 20 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- CCH5 will expire on 21 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- CLH5 will expire on 20 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- CTH5 will expire on 21 Feb 2025 at 16:00
- OJH5 will expire on 21 Feb 2025 at 13:15
- RCH5 will expire on 24 Feb 2025 at 10:00
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