Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew January 4 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tesla and Apple fall, Gold is shining at the start of the year.
Good Morning,
US equities trades weaker yesterday, with the Dow losing 0.03%, the S&P 500 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.76%, Tesla and Apple being the main reason for the larger decline of the Nasdaq. After missing delivery numbers, Tesla slumped 12% and Apple lost 3.7% on a report of lower demand.
The Dax gained to near 14300 again in the future.
Rates in the US declined from 3.84 to 3.71 so far this year, the EU traded in a broad range from 2.5 to 2.34 now 3.38.
The USD Index gained to 104.46 as EURUSD felt to 1.0578, GBPUSD 1.2000 and USDJPY gaining to 130.50. Gold remains strong at 1850 while Silver gave up some ground to trade at 24.15. Gold is testing the 1852 resistance, if it fails, support is seen at 1802. Oil fell more than 4% on worries on the Chinses economy and recession cited as reason.
US Politics are in focus after Kevin McCarthy failed to be elected as Speaker of the hose despite the GOP majority.
German Import Prices came out surprisingly low at -4.5% monthly and up 14.5% annually. The Expectation was -1.6% and +18%.
Japanese factory activity fell at the sharpest pace in 26 months in December, the remainder f the day we are expecting will be a busy day with international PMI but the focus is likely to be on the fed Minutes unless there is a significant surprise.
8:30 Swiss CPI, 8:45 France CPI and consumer confidence, 9:15 Spain PM, 9:45 Italy PMI 9:50 France PMI 9:55 Germany PMI 10:00 EU PMI 16:00 US ISM PMI
Key today should be the Fed Minutes at 20:00
Trade safely.
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