Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off on new corona variant, Black Friday with new meaning?
Good morning,
Equities are under pressure on the new corona variant that seems to be more infectious than other variants. Oil falls 3.5% and bonds rise. The UK limited travel to several destinations, China imposed new measures as did Japan. Given the way the market reacts, Black Friday may get a new meaning.
Equity futures are under pressure with the Dax giving up 1.9%, the Eurostoxx50 2.2% and US Indexes 1.25 (S&P 500 and Dow) and the Nasdaq 0.65%. US 10 Year yields gapped lower to 1.54, down 10 bps.
EURUSD remains stable at 1.1220 but GBP fell against the USD and the Euro to new 2021 lows on growth fears, trading below 1.33 and 0.8437 Gold is higher at 1800 and Silver torn between the industrial and the precious metal unmoved at 23.60. The Turkish Lira “stabilitzed” near the 12 figure.
Bitcoin remains at 57k despite news that India is looking to ban crypto currencies.
Other Headlines:
Bloomberg reports the highest inflow to Equity Funds this year, more than in the last 20 years combined
China is asking Uber competitor Didl to delist in the US
The Japanese Prime minister asks companies to raise rates by more than 3%, that seems not to support the transitory inflation theme.
Todays agenda is fairly empty and I believe the German Import prices will fade behind the new corona variant.
Please remember that US Exchanges will close early today due to the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US:
Trade safely