Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew November 22 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading into Thanksgiving and Black Friday
Good Morning
We saw a bit of a consolidation day yesterday. Equities ended a little in the red, yields as well as the USD stabilized. Indexes lost between 0.1 and 0.6& and the US500 is now at 4533, the US Tech 100 NAS at 15895 and the GER40 15908.
Kim to a look at the Technicals of US Indexes: S&P 500 is testing resistance at around 4,550 just shy of July peak at around 4,607. RSI is above 70 i.e., indicating uptrend is a bit stretched but is likely to continue higher.
The USD Index traded down to near 103 yesterday but recovered to 103.6 and made it back above the 200Day moving average. EURUSD is now at 1.09, GBPUSD 1.2515 after hawkish remarks by the Bank of England and USDJPY 148.95. Gold is at the 2000 mark and Silver 23.75.
10 year Yields are back at 4.45 as the Fed minutes failed to provide significant insights,
News:
Israel and Hamas agreed on a 4 day four-day truce, for hostage releases and to let aid into Gaza and 50 hostages will be released along with 150 Palestinian prisoners.
The German Government is struggling to review it`s financial situation after the central court decision caused the finance minister to impose a block on new spendings.
Nvidia Earnings were strong but the outlook for q4 expected weak in China. The company forecasts revenue of $20 billion+/- 2%. Analysts expect revenue of $17.86 billion. The Stock closed below the 500 mark yesterday at 499, aftermarket close was 490.
Binance will pay 4 billion in settlements and CEO Zhao will resign. Bitcoin falls to below 37k.
Reuters just reported that: OpenAI on Wednesday has reached an agreement for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor , Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angel
The Bank of Japan is seen to end negative rates in 2024 by a majority of economists.
Today we expect some fairly important data with the US Durable Goods orders as well as the Initial Jobless claims (both 14:30) at 16:00 CET the University of Michigan as well as the EU Consumer Confidence will follow. and position adjustments for profit taking and risk avoidance over Thanksgiving will also most likely be key. Tomorrow is a Holiday in the US as well as Japan, Friday is Black Friday, many people will try to take the day off and a significant amount will be online shopping. Expect low liquidity and either fairly calm or very volatile markets.
Key events:
Tuesday
Wednesday
- Data Japan Chain Store Sales, US Durable Goods orders, Initial Jobless claims, University of Michigan Sentiment EU Consumer Confidence
- Earnings John Deere,
Thusday
- Data Germany, France, UK, EU PMI, Turkish Rate Decision, THANKSGIVING
- Earnings
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, German GDP, IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US PMI, Black Friday
- Earnings
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CCZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CTZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
PAZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZOZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
NGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 08:30 GMT
Expiring CFDs
PALLADIUMDEC23 will expire 21 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COCOANYDEC23 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COTTONDEC23 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
NATGASUSDEC23 will expire 24 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
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