Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Saxo Spotlight
Commodities in 2025: Broad Gains for Diversified Approach
Saxo
Summary: During the Saxo Bank Switzerland Commodity Outlook Event on the 25th of February in Zurich our Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen presented the latest outlook for the asset class in 2025. If you missed the event, you can find the detailed view in the video and a summary of the insights in the article.
Our latest commodities outlook maintains a positive stance on the sector, suggesting it could offer stronger returns than key equity markets. We examine the impact of President Trump’s "Make America Great Again" agenda on commodities, acknowledging short-term concerns about a potential global trade war and its effects on economic growth and demand. However, we believe that emerging mega-trends will provide medium-term support for commodities.
Key trends shaping the sector include deglobalization, increased defense spending, decarbonization, rising power demand, de-dollarization, shifting demographics, and climate change. These factors are driving demand at a time when a decade of underinvestment in long-cycle projects could lead to supply constraints for critical commodities in the not to distant future.
Our analysis focuses on crude oil where we forecast Brent will trade in a USD 65-85 range, natural gas which could be on the cusp of a period of rising prices, gold taking aim at USD 3,300 with silver following suit towards USD 40. Copper is a patience game but overall we see surging power demand underpin demand for its main conduit. We take a closer look at key agriculture commodities while also exploring various trading and investment tools to help clients make informed decisions in this evolving market landscape.
Stay tuned for upcoming events and webinars which are announced in our webinar section!
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...