Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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COT: Fed and PBOC trigger largest weekly surge in commodities demand in a decade
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Key points:
- Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week to last Tuesday, 24 September.
- Dollar selling resumed as China stimulus raised demand for AUD, while the JPY long reached a fresh eight-year high.
- Commodities speculators bought the highest number of futures contracts in at least a decade, with focus on crude oil, natural gas, copper, soybeans, and sugar.
- Gold's record-breaking run was met with a lukewarm response from funds already holding the largest exposure since early 2020.
Forex:
Following two weeks of short covering, speculators once again turned net sellers of a weakening dollar amid rising risk appetite following the recent US rate cut, and not least after China’s leaders initiated a series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that helped fuel confidence, particularly among the activity currencies, led by the Australian dollar, which benefitted from the prospect of increased demand for its raw materials. Overall, the dollar short against eight IMM futures jumped 61% to USD 14.7 billion, with all except CHF seeing net buying, led by a 72% reduction in the AUD short and a 38% increase in the GBP net long. Meanwhile, the JPY net long rose for a 12th consecutive week to reach a fresh eight-year high at 66k contracts.
Commodities:
In the latest reporting week to 24 September, the Bloomberg Commodity Index jumped 3.4% as the positive impact of the recent US rate cut—reducing recession fears and lowering funding costs—was followed by a barrage of Chinese stimulus measures, potentially increasing demand from the world’s top consumer of raw materials. Gains were seen across all sectors, particularly the energy sector, where the China focus lifted crude oil prices, before prices stumbled again later in the week as the focus returned to the prospect of rising supply.
Elsewhere, China-dependent sectors, especially industrial metals, enjoyed a strong week while weather concerns continued to underpin the agriculture sector, where gains were led by soybeans, sugar, and cocoa. Finally, precious metal traders showed a relatively lukewarm buying response to another record high in gold, with silver increasingly attracting attention given its relative cheapness compared to gold.
Overall, hedge funds increased their weekly commodities exposure by the largest number of contracts in at least a decade, with all of the 27 major futures contracts, except five, seeing net buying. On an individual contract level, those that stood out were WTI, Brent, natural gas, copper, soybeans, and sugar.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
Recent commodity articles:
27 Sept 2024: Commodity weekly: Industrial metals gain strength during a week of crude weakness
26 Sept 2024: Crude prices drop again as Saudi and Libya supply concerns grow
24 Sept 2024: Fed and PBOC add momentum to commodities market rebound
23 Sept 2024: COT: Dollar short reduced; Investment metals see strong demand ahead of FOMC
20 Sept 2024: Commodity weekly: Commodities boosted by bumper rate cut
20 Sept 2024 Video: Gold or silver, which metal will perform the best
17 Sept 2024: With gold reaching new heights, silver shows potential
16 Sept 2024: COT: Record short Brent and gas oil positions add upside risks to energy
11 Sept 2024: Crude slumps amid technical selling and recession fears
10 Sept 2024: US Election: will gold win in all scenarios
9 Sept 2024: COT: Crude long cut to 12-year low; Dollar short more than doubling
5 Sept 2024: Can gold overcome the 'September curse'?
4 Sept 2024: Wheat rises on European crop worries
3 Sept 2024: Chinese economic woes drag down crude oil and copper
2 Sept 2024: COT: Commodities see broad demand as the USD slumps to a net short
30 Aug 2024: Commodities sector eyes fourth weekly gain amid softer dollar and Fed expectations
27 Aug 2024: Month-long sugar slide pauses amid concerns of Brazil's supply
27 Aug 2024: Libya supply disruptions propel crude prices higher
26 Aug 2024: COT: Funds boost metals investment as dollar long positions halve amid weakness
23 Aug 2024: Commodities Weekly: Metal strength counterbalancing energy and grains
22 Aug 2024: Persistent supply contraints keep cocoa prices elevated
21 Aug 2024: Weak demand focus steers crude towards key support
19 Aug 2024: Resilient gold bulls drive price to fresh record above USD 2500
19 Aug 2024: COT Buyers return to crude as gold stays strong; Historic yen buying
16 Aug 2024: Commodities weekly: Gold strong as China weakness drags on other markets
9 Aug 2024: Commodities weekly: Calm returns to markets, including raw materials
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