Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - WTI and Brent oil resuming uptrend - $100/brl? Natural gas on the rise. Carbon Emissions declining
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: WTI and Brent Crude oil correction less than anticipated. Uptrend seems to be resuming. Can it reach USD100/brl?
Natural gas slowly crawling higher closing in on key resistnace levels
Carbon Emission continuing its decline
WTI Crude oil correction seems to be over. It didn’t even reach the 0.382 retracement at 87.58 before buyers seem to regain control.
WTI is likely to have another go at the strong resistance at around 93.74.
If it closes above there is no strong resistance until around 104.80. Minor resistance at around 98.62.
Daily RSI is showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating that a new high above 93.74 is quite likely.
IF WTI slides back below 88.20 it could be hit with a sell-off down to test the lower rising trendline, but a move down to support at around 83.58 could also be seen Brent Crude oil Shooting star top and reversal candle is still intact but if Brent is closing above 95.96 it will be cancelled.
The correction seems to have been cut short and the uptrend seems to be resuming.
A bullish move to the strong resistance around 98.57-99.56 is in the cards.
A break above that resistance level could fuel another rally to 105.48
If buyers cannot push Brent above 95.96 followed by a slide below 91.80 a correction down to test the lower falling trendline is likely. Possibly even down to t88.19-87.31 Henry Hub gas has found a solid base around 2.48 and is once again close to be testing key strong resistance at around 3.00.
A close above could initiate a rally higher towards 3.60-3.70 level.
RSI is showing positive sentiment supporting th4e bullish scenario of higher Gas prices
Dutch TTF gas is in an uptrend testing August peak at around 44.80. It is not a strong resistance and if broken Dutch gas is likely to move higher to 50.30-54.45
Positive sentiment on the RSI is supporting the bullish gas scenario.
For Dutch gas to reverse its uptrend a close below 30.50 is needed Carbon Emissions contract is trading in a falling trend channel. The Futures contract is trading below all Moving Averages; 55, 100 and 200 and RSI is showing negative sentiment which underline the bearish picture. Emissions could drop to the support area at around 78-77.
For Carbon Emissions to reverse to bullish trend a close above 90.45 is needed. A close above 86.15 could be first indication of that scenario to play out Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)