Quarterly Outlook
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Technical Update - WTI and Brent oil resuming uptrend - $100/brl? Natural gas on the rise. Carbon Emissions declining
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: WTI and Brent Crude oil correction less than anticipated. Uptrend seems to be resuming. Can it reach USD100/brl?
Natural gas slowly crawling higher closing in on key resistnace levels
Carbon Emission continuing its decline
WTI Crude oil correction seems to be over. It didn’t even reach the 0.382 retracement at 87.58 before buyers seem to regain control.
WTI is likely to have another go at the strong resistance at around 93.74.
If it closes above there is no strong resistance until around 104.80. Minor resistance at around 98.62.
Daily RSI is showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating that a new high above 93.74 is quite likely.
IF WTI slides back below 88.20 it could be hit with a sell-off down to test the lower rising trendline, but a move down to support at around 83.58 could also be seen Brent Crude oil Shooting star top and reversal candle is still intact but if Brent is closing above 95.96 it will be cancelled.
The correction seems to have been cut short and the uptrend seems to be resuming.
A bullish move to the strong resistance around 98.57-99.56 is in the cards.
A break above that resistance level could fuel another rally to 105.48
If buyers cannot push Brent above 95.96 followed by a slide below 91.80 a correction down to test the lower falling trendline is likely. Possibly even down to t88.19-87.31 Henry Hub gas has found a solid base around 2.48 and is once again close to be testing key strong resistance at around 3.00.
A close above could initiate a rally higher towards 3.60-3.70 level.
RSI is showing positive sentiment supporting th4e bullish scenario of higher Gas prices
Dutch TTF gas is in an uptrend testing August peak at around 44.80. It is not a strong resistance and if broken Dutch gas is likely to move higher to 50.30-54.45
Positive sentiment on the RSI is supporting the bullish gas scenario.
For Dutch gas to reverse its uptrend a close below 30.50 is needed Carbon Emissions contract is trading in a falling trend channel. The Futures contract is trading below all Moving Averages; 55, 100 and 200 and RSI is showing negative sentiment which underline the bearish picture. Emissions could drop to the support area at around 78-77.
For Carbon Emissions to reverse to bullish trend a close above 90.45 is needed. A close above 86.15 could be first indication of that scenario to play out Latest Market Insights
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