Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Equity rally leaves Apple on the shelf
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Equities are bouncing off their December lows, but Apple shares are struggling to keep pace.
The equities bounce we have seen across the board since the lows of December 26 is not being led by Apple, which has lost 40% since its peak in October 2018.
The stock is struggling to recover, and the biggest short-term test for AAPL is whether it can fully close the gap from last week. During a massive move over several days, we often see three gaps: a breakaway gap, a continuation gap and an exhaustion gap.
The gap seen last week seems to be an exhaustion gap which usually is the final step before a (larger) correction. An exhaustion gap will usually be closed within five trading days, but despite AAPL having closed the gap the correction is still struggling to get momentum.
A close above 154.90 could provide the necessary momentum, but it remains to be seen if Apple can actually close above that level. The trend is down, but a look at the Relative Strength Index shows divergence, indicating a correction is due.
Volume also peaked at the current bottom, supporting price exhaustion.
A rejection at 154.90 could lead to a retest of lows while a close above 156.40 would confirm a new uptrend... however long that might last.
The stock is struggling to recover, and the biggest short-term test for AAPL is whether it can fully close the gap from last week. During a massive move over several days, we often see three gaps: a breakaway gap, a continuation gap and an exhaustion gap.
The gap seen last week seems to be an exhaustion gap which usually is the final step before a (larger) correction. An exhaustion gap will usually be closed within five trading days, but despite AAPL having closed the gap the correction is still struggling to get momentum.
A close above 154.90 could provide the necessary momentum, but it remains to be seen if Apple can actually close above that level. The trend is down, but a look at the Relative Strength Index shows divergence, indicating a correction is due.
Volume also peaked at the current bottom, supporting price exhaustion.
A rejection at 154.90 could lead to a retest of lows while a close above 156.40 would confirm a new uptrend... however long that might last.
AAPL found support at the 200-week simple moving average at around 142.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy