Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Global Head of Investment Strategy
It’s Valentine’s Day on February 14. A time for romance, roses, and whispered sweet nothings. But when it comes to investing, love can be downright dangerous. Many investors fall head over heels for certain stocks, unable to let go even when the warning signs are flashing.
Just like in relationships, emotions can cloud your judgment. You might be stuck on a company that once made your heart race (and your portfolio grow), but is now ghosting you with declining profits and underperformance. Maybe you're still dreaming of a stock’s glory days when, in reality, it's let itself go.
This Valentine’s Day, let’s talk about the dangers of falling in love with your investments – and why, sometimes, it’s not them, it’s you. But first, a little Valentine's Day poem.
Roses are red, violets are blue,
Loving your stocks? That’s risky for you.
They once made you rich, they soared to the sky,
But now they have fallen—don’t ask yourself why.
A great company’s nice, but profits must grow,
If numbers look shaky, it’s your cue to go.
Diversify wisely, don’t marry one name,
Or market downturns will bring you the pain.
We’ve all been there. You spot a company that’s innovative, exciting, and seems to be on a trajectory to the stars. Maybe it’s a tech darling that disrupted an industry, a brand you personally love, or a stock that made you a fortune early on.
You tell yourself, this one is different. You ignore the red flags: slowing growth, increased competition, or a valuation that makes no sense. You refuse to acknowledge that others might be better suited for your portfolio.
This is classic confirmation bias – you only see the good, ignoring the bad. Instead of evaluating a company on fundamentals, you cling to an outdated narrative. And this doesn’t just happen with individual stocks. Many investors have a home-country bias, believing that stocks from their own country are somehow safer, better, or more predictable than foreign equities. But limiting yourself to what’s familiar means missing out on opportunities elsewhere. The global market is full of potential partners – you just need to be willing to look beyond your backyard.
So, don't get swept up in emotion. Always reassess your investments with fresh eyes. The market doesn’t care about your love story. And don’t let home-country bias keep you from diversifying globally – sometimes, your perfect match is further away than you think.
Imagine you’ve been in a relationship for years. It was great in the beginning, but now things have changed. Your partner isn’t who they used to be – maybe they’ve lost ambition, picked up bad habits, or just don’t fit your future plans anymore.
The same thing happens with stocks. A company that was once a market leader might struggle to adapt. A high-flyer from years ago could be burdened with debt, management missteps, or increased competition. And yet, many investors refuse to sell, clinging to what was instead of what is.
Why? Because selling means admitting you were wrong. It feels like breaking up – and breakups are hard. But remember, a stock doesn’t owe you loyalty, and you don’t owe it loyalty either. Holding onto a bad investment out of nostalgia can cost you dearly. Be ruthless when necessary.
Some companies are easy to love. They have a charismatic CEO, a feel-good mission, or a product you personally adore. But good companies don’t always make good investments.
Take a look at history – plenty of well-loved brands were household names but terrible long-term investments. Investing isn’t about sentiment; it’s about returns. So don’t confuse a great company with a great stock. The two don’t always go hand in hand.
Love can make you irrational, but investing requires clear thinking. Detach emotionally from your investments and assess them with a cold, hard, rational eye. Instead of asking “Do I still love this stock?”, ask:
Maybe a stock once treated you well, delivering strong returns and making you feel like a genius. But times have changed. It no longer fits your investment strategy, and deep down, you know you should move on.
This is where portfolio discipline comes in. Just as you wouldn’t stay in a relationship that no longer aligns with your life goals, you shouldn’t hold a stock that no longer serves your financial objectives. Therefore, regularly reviewing your portfolio can be beneficial. Does each holding still align with your goals? If not, it might be time to say goodbye.
This Valentine’s Day, keep your emotions in check when it comes to investing. Stocks don’t love you back, and they certainly won’t hesitate to break your heart – or your portfolio. The best investors stay objective, knowing when to hold and when to walk away. So, instead of falling in love with your investments, fall in love with good decision-making. Your future self – and your bank account – will thank you.
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